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New insights on unemployment duration and post unemployment earnings in Germany: censored Box-Cox quantile regression at work

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  • Fitzenberger, Bernd
  • Wilke, Ralf A.

Abstract

In light of nonstationary search theory (van den Berg, 1990), this paper estimates the effects of benefit entitlement periods and the size of unemployment benefits on unemployment durations and post{unemployment earnings in West Germany. For the unemployment duration, we estimate censored Box{Cox quantile regression, which is robust with respect to the specification of the unobserved error distribution and avoids the common proportional hazard assumption. Our results suggest that the length of benefit entitlement is only of minor importance for the duration of search unemployment and for post unemployment wages. A high wage replacement rate in the low wage sector seem to considerably elongate the duration of unemployment and it is associated with higher post unemployment wages.

Suggested Citation

  • Fitzenberger, Bernd & Wilke, Ralf A., 2007. "New insights on unemployment duration and post unemployment earnings in Germany: censored Box-Cox quantile regression at work," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-007, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:5494
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrey Launov & Klaus Wälde, 2013. "Estimating Incentive And Welfare Effects Of Nonstationary Unemployment Benefits," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1159-1198, November.
    2. Melanie Arntz & Ralf Wilke, 2009. "Unemployment Duration in Germany: Individual and Regional Determinants of Local Job Finding, Migration and Subsidized Employment," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(1), pages 43-61.
    3. repec:iab:iabfme:200806(en is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Luis Beccaria & Roxana Maurizio & Martin Trombetta & Gustavo Vázquez, 2016. "Una evaluación del efecto scarring en Argentina," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, vol. 77, August.
    5. Haan, Peter & Prowse, Victoria L., 2010. "The Design of Unemployment Transfers: Evidence from a Dynamic Structural Life-Cycle Model," IZA Discussion Papers 4792, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. repec:iab:iabfme:200709(en is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Aysit Tansel & H. Mehmet Taşçı, 2010. "Hazard Analysis of Unemployment Duration by Gender in a Developing Country: The Case of Turkey," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 24(4), pages 501-530, December.
    8. Wilke, Ralf A. & Wichert, Laura, 2005. "Application of a simple nonparametric conditional quantile function estimator in unemployment duration analysis," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-67 [rev.], ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    9. Trine Filges & Anders Bruun Jonassen & Anne‐Marie Klint Jørgensen, 2018. "Reducing unemployment benefit duration to increase job finding rates: a systematic review," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(1), pages 1-194.
    10. Muhammad Saleh Mire, & Muhammad Awaluddin & Agus Junaidi & Akhmad Noor, 2024. "Analysis of Socioeconomic and Industrial Development and its Impact on Environmental Quality and Unemployment in Indonesia," International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation, International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation (IJRSI), vol. 10(12), pages 176-191, January.
    11. Arntz, Melanie & Lo, Simon M. S. & Wilke, Ralf A., 2008. "Bounds analysis of competing risks : a nonparametric evaluation of the effect of unemployment benefits on migration in Germany (Revised version of the FDZ Methodenbericht No. 04/2007)," FDZ Methodenreport 200806_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    12. Nicholas Lawson, 2017. "Fiscal Externalities and Optimal Unemployment Insurance," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 281-312, November.
    13. Wichert, Laura & Wilke, Ralf A., 2007. "Simple nonparametric estimators for unemployment duration analysis," FDZ Methodenreport 200709_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    14. repec:iab:iabfme:200704(en is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Álvaro A. Novo & Mário Centeno, 2007. "The Regressivity of Unemployment Insurance: Identification of the Income Effect Through the July 1999 Legislation," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    16. Arntz, Melanie & Lo, Simon M. S. & Wilke, Ralf A., 2007. "Bounds analysis of competing risks : a nonparametric evaluation of the effect of unemployment benefits on migration in Germany," FDZ-Methodenreport 200704 (en), Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    17. Trine Filges & Lars Pico Geerdsen & Anne‐Sofie Due Knudsen & Anne‐Marie Klint Jørgensen & Krystyna Kowalski, 2013. "Unemployment Benefit Exhaustion: Incentive Effects on Job Finding Rates: A Systematic Review," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 9(1), pages 1-104.
    18. Daniela-Emanuela Danacica, 2018. "Labor Market Insertion Of Higher Educated People – A Literature Review," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 6, pages 138-145, December.
    19. Daniela Emanuela DĂNĂCICĂ, 2023. "The Effect of Academic Specialization on Unemployment Spells and (Re) Employment Hazard of Highly Educated Individuals in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 91-106, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Box Cox quantile regression; hazard rate; unemployment; wage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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