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Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2014: Deutsche Konjunktur im Aufschwung – aber Gegenwind von der Wirtschaftspolitik

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Abstract

Am 10. April 2014 stellte die Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose in Berlin ihr Frühjahrsgutachten der Presse vor. Ihrer Ansicht nach befindet sich die deutsche Wirtschaft im Frühjahr 2014 im Aufschwung. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt wird in diesem Jahr voraussichtlich um 1,9% steigen. Das 68%-Prognoseintervall reicht dabei von 1,2% bis 2,6%. Treibende Kraft ist die Binnennachfrage. Der Anstieg der Verbraucherpreise fällt mit 1,3% im Jahr 2014 moderat aus. Die Zahl der Erwerbstätigen dürfte im Jahr 2014 noch einmal kräftig steigen. Die Konjunktur erhält allerdings Gegenwind von der Wirtschaftspolitik. So ist die abschlagsfreie Rente ab 63 ein Schritt in die falsche Richtung, und die Einführung des Mindestlohns wird im Jahr 2015 den Beschäftigungsanstieg dämpfen.

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  • Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2014. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2014: Deutsche Konjunktur im Aufschwung – aber Gegenwind von der Wirtschaftspolitik," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(08), pages 03-64, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:67:y:2014:i:08:p:03-64
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    Cited by:

    1. Holtemöller, Oliver & Pohle, Felix, 2020. "Employment effects of introducing a minimum wage: The case of Germany," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 108-121.
    2. Alexander Eck & Carolin Fritzsche & Jan Kluge & Joachim Ragnitz & Felix Rösel, 2015. "Fiscal Capacity and Determining Structural Characteristics of the Eastern German Laender," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 76, May.
    3. Philipp Breidenbach & Roland Döhrn & Tanja Kasten, 2014. "Günstige Gelegenheit: Jetzt die kalte Progression abschaffen. Verzicht auf heimliche Steuererhöhungen würde den Staat nur 3,8 Milliarden Euro pro Jahr kosten," RWI Positionen, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, pages 12, 07.
    4. Döhrn, Roland & Barabas, György & Fuest, Angela & Gebhardt, Heinz & an de Meulen, Philipp & Micheli, Martin & Rujin, Svetlana & Zwick, Lina, 2015. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Konjunktur bleibt aufwärts gerichtet," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 66(3), pages 39-98.
    5. Dürig, Wolfgang, 2014. "Die konjunkturelle Entwicklung im Handwerk 2013," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 65(2), pages 35-51.
    6. Johann Wackerbauer, 2014. "Waste Management Industry Heading towards a Circular Economy," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(09), pages 31-35, May.
    7. Wolfgang Dürig, 2014. "Die konjunkturelle Entwicklung im Handwerk 2013," RWI Konjunkturbericht, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, pages 17, 06.
    8. Roland Döhrn & György Barabas & Angela Fuest & Heinz Gebhardt & Philipp an de Meulen & Martin Micheli & Svetlana Rujin & Lina Zwick, 2015. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Kräftige Expansion – nachlassender Schub im kommenden Jahr," RWI Konjunkturbericht, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, pages 65, 03.
    9. Moog, Stefan & Raffelhüschen, Bernd, 2014. "Ehrbarer Staat? Die Generationenbilanz. Update 2014: Alte Gewinner und junge Verlierer," Argumente zur Marktwirtschaft und Politik 127, Stiftung Marktwirtschaft / The Market Economy Foundation, Berlin.
    10. Thomas Strobel & Arno Städtler, 2014. "Investitionen und Leasing mit kräftigem Wachstum," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(12), pages 26-28, June.
    11. Döhrn, Roland & Barabas, György & Fuest, Angela & Gebhardt, Heinz & an de Meulen, Philipp & Micheli, Martin & Rujin, Svetlana & Zwick, Lina, 2015. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Kräftige Expansion - nachlassender Schub im kommenden Jahr," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 66(1), pages 43-107.
    12. Breidenbach, Philipp & Döhrn, Roland & Kasten, Tanja, 2014. "Günstige Gelegenheit: Jetzt die kalte Progression abschaffen. Verzicht auf heimliche Steuererhöhungen würde den Staat nur 3,8 Milliarden Euro pro Jahr kosten," RWI Positionen 60, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    13. Dürig, Wolfgang, 2015. "Die konjunkturelle Entwicklung im Handwerk 2014," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 66(2), pages 47-66.
    14. repec:zbw:rwipos:060 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Weltwirtschaft; Weltkonjunktur; Konjunktur; Konjunkturprognose; Wirtschaftslage; Deutschland; Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion; Welt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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