Micro-Level Impacts of the War on Ukraine’s Agriculture Sector : Distinguishing Local and National Effects over Time

This paper uses remotely sensed and farm-level data to assess the micro-level impacts of the war in Ukraine. Remotely sensed, high-resolution data on areas of war-induced agricultural field damage in different periods are combined with crop cover data for a 2019–23 panel of about 10,000 village councils. Estimates suggest that there were significant negative effects of field damage on crop area, with persistent, direct impacts, the size of which increased over time. However, the economic losses due to conflict-induced increased transport costs reduced profitability by more than 60 percent, far surpassing the losses from direct crop damage in conflict areas. The lack of diversification into less transport cost sensitive, higher value crops—even in areas far from the conflict zone—points to constraints to adaptation and diversification. By increasing the resilience of farmers in non-conflict areas, removing such constraints could accelerate post-conflict recovery and complement efforts toward reconstruction in directly affected areas.