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The economic impacts of Russia–Ukraine War export disruptions of grain commodities

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  • Adam Rose
  • Zhenhua Chen
  • Dan Wei

Abstract

Using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium model, we analyze the economic impacts of grain export disruptions caused by the Russia–Ukraine War during the first year of hostilities. The simulation results indicate that these disruptions not only affect Ukraine and Russia but also generate significant economic impacts across other world regions. Ukraine is projected to experience the largest impact on its own economy, with a real GDP loss of $859 million. In contrast, Russia's GDP is projected to decline by only $3.8 million, primarily due to its much lower dependence on grain exports and to favorable terms of trade effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Rose & Zhenhua Chen & Dan Wei, 2023. "The economic impacts of Russia–Ukraine War export disruptions of grain commodities," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 645-665, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:apecpp:v:45:y:2023:i:2:p:645-665
    DOI: 10.1002/aepp.13351
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    Cited by:

    1. Hamulczuk, Mariusz & Cherevyk, Denys & Makarchuk, Oksana & Kuts, Tetyana & Voliak, Lesia, 2023. "Integration of Ukrainian Grain Markets with Foreign Markets During Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine," International Journal of Agricultural Sciences and Technology (IJAGST), SvedbergOpen, vol. 377(4), December.
    2. Hao Xu & Niu Niu & Dongmei Li & Chengjie Wang, 2024. "A Dynamic Evolutionary Analysis of the Vulnerability of Global Food Trade Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-17, May.
    3. Elena Bisinicu & Valeria Abaza & Laura Boicenco & Filimon Adrian & George-Emanuel Harcota & Oana Marin & Andra Oros & Elena Pantea & Alina Spinu & Florin Timofte & George Tiganov & Oana Vlas & Luminit, 2024. "Spatial Cumulative Assessment of Impact Risk-Implementing Ecosystem-Based Management for Enhanced Sustainability and Biodiversity in the Black Sea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-27, May.
    4. Chishti, Muhammad Zubair & Khalid, Ali Awais & Sana, Moniba, 2023. "Conflict vs sustainability of global energy, agricultural and metal markets: A lesson from Ukraine-Russia war," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    5. Federico Solari & Natalya Lysova & Giovanni Romagnoli & Roberto Montanari & Eleonora Bottani, 2024. "Insights from 20 Years (2004–2023) of Supply Chain Disruption Research: Trends and Future Directions Based on a Bibliometric Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-24, August.
    6. Kayani, Umar & Hasnaoui, Amir & Khan, Maaz & Zahoor, Nadia & Nawaz, Farrukh, 2024. "Analyzing fossil fuel commodities' return spillovers during the Russia and Ukraine crisis in the energy market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    7. Countryman, Amanda M. & Litvinov, Valentyn & Kolodiazhnyi, Ivan & Bogonos, Mariia & Nivievskyi, Oleg, 2024. "Agricultural and Economywide Effects of the War in Ukraine," Commissioned Papers 344185, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    8. Hamulczuk Mariusz & Cherevyk Denys & Makarchuk Oksana & Kuts Tetyana & Voliak Lesia, 2023. "Integration of Ukrainian Grain Markets with Foreign Markets During Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine," Zagadnienia Ekonomiki Rolnej / Problems of Agricultural Economics, Sciendo, vol. 377(4), pages 1-25, December.
    9. Jan Neugebauer & Marek Vokoun, 2024. "Economic and Political Dynamics of Globalization: A Review of Continuity and Change in Research Focus," International Journal of Economic Sciences, European Research Center, vol. 13(1), pages 30-57, May.

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