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Inversión Perdida: Conflicto Civil y Crédito Agrícola en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolás de Roux
  • Luis Martínez

Abstract

¿Renuncian los productores agrícolas a inversiones rentables debido al conflicto civil? La respuesta a esta pregunta es fundamental para entender los costos de la violencia, pero requiere poder medir la voluntad de inversión de los agricultores y acceder a una fuente de variación exógena en la intensidad del conflicto. En este artículo, superamos estos obstáculos usando datos administrativos del banco agropecuario más grande de Colombia y el acuerdo de desmovilización entre el gobierno colombiano y el grupo insurgente FARC del 2016. Un análisis de diferencias-en-diferencias arroja tres resultados principales. Primero, el crédito a los pequenos productores aumenta después del acuerdo en municipios expuestos a las FARC (17% sobre la media de la muestra). Este aumento es explicado por un mayor número de aplicaciones, sin cambio alguno en variables relacionadas con la oferta. Segundo, un modelo teórico sencillo combinado con información detallada de las características de los aplicantes a créditos y de los proyectos productivos (incluyendo scores crediticios y comportamiento de los préstamos) sugiere que cambios en los retornos de los proyectos, más no en su riesgo, explican el aumento de la demanda de crédito. Tercero, el conflicto no es el obstáculo principal para la inversión en áreas con poco acceso a mercados. La combinación de mayor inversión, tasas de mora constantes y evidencia adicional de un aumento en la luminosidad nocturna sugieren un impacto económico positivo del final del conflicto.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolás de Roux & Luis Martínez, 2021. "Inversión Perdida: Conflicto Civil y Crédito Agrícola en Colombia," Documentos CEDE 19622, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:019622
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conflicto; Inversión; Crédito; Agricultura; FARC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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