War and food insecurity in Ukraine

It is widely held that armed conflict is a central catalyst for food insecurity. However, existing studies tend to use aggregate measures of both conflict and food insecurity to analyze the long-term consequences of violence. We know far less about the immediate impacts of armed conflict on individual-level food insecurity. To address this gap, we collected two waves of probability surveys in Ukraine (Ns = 1081 and 811) at the start of the 2022 Russian invasion. We asked, specifically, whether Ukrainians’ exposure to military attacks was associated with the extent to which they reported food insecurity. The data indicate that one in three Ukrainians were food insecure at the time of the surveys. In turn, our analyses suggest that both direct attacks on the individual respondents, as well as indirect attacks (on their family members, acquaintances, and the municipalities in which they resided) relate to reported food insecurity. Notably, we found that the relationship between military attacks and food insecurity was only moderated by gender, but not age, education, or socioeconomic status. As the war in Ukraine continues, it is important to understand and document its consequences on civilians. Moreover, our findings likely have implications for policies tailoring wartime relief efforts – not only in Ukraine, but also in other countries experiencing large-scale military invasion.