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The impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict on global food security

Author

Listed:
  • Lin, Faqin
  • Li, Xuecao
  • Jia, Ningyuan
  • Feng, Fan
  • Huang, Hai
  • Huang, Jianxi
  • Fan, Shenggen
  • Ciais, Philippe
  • Song, Xiao Peng

Abstract

Ukraine and Russia are two important grain producers and exporters in the world, accounting for 12% and 17% of the world's wheat exports, respectively. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine may greatly impact Ukraine's wheat production and export as well as Russia's wheat export. Satellite observations have showed signs of wheat production reduction in Ukraine in the season 2021–2022. Considering the uncertainty of the conflict duration, we have designed three scenarios (i.e., slight, medium, and severe) depending on how the war would significantly impact the wheat harvest and trade disruption. From analysis of potential impacts of the conflict on global wheat market under the general equilibrium trade model, we have found that the conflict would lead to a trade drop (60%), soaring wheat prices (50%), and severe food insecurity with decreased purchasing power for wheat (above 30%) in the most severe scenario, especially for countries that heavily rely on wheat imports from Ukraine, such as Egypt, Turkey, Mongolia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan. Considering the role of Russia and Ukraine in agricultural input sectors including oil, natural gas, and fertilizers, especially Russia, the trade blockade caused by the conflict will give rise to price increase by 10%–30% and welfare decline by 15–25% for most affected countries. The conflict would put as many as 1.7 billion people in hunger and 276 million people in severe food insecurity. Food shortages, energy shortages and inflation have spread to many countries like dominoes which have fallen into trouble one after another with social unrest day after day. Our analysis also shows that countries including the United States, China, India, Canada, Australia, France, Argentina, and Germany would increase their wheat production and exports for the reconstruction of the global wheat supply pattern. The modeled results indicate that the conflict-induced global wheat crisis and food insecurity can be notably alleviated if these countries increase their production by 2%–3% in 2022–2023 and unnecessary trade restrictions are exempted.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, Faqin & Li, Xuecao & Jia, Ningyuan & Feng, Fan & Huang, Hai & Huang, Jianxi & Fan, Shenggen & Ciais, Philippe & Song, Xiao Peng, 2023. "The impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict on global food security," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117700, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:117700
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Antonio, Ronald Jeremy & Valera, Harold Glenn & Mishra, Ashok & Pede, Valerien & Yamano, Takashi & Vieira, Bernardo Oliva, 2024. "Rice price inflation dynamics in the Philippines," MPRA Paper 123641, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Abu Hatab, Assem & Lagerkvist, Carl-Johan, 2024. "Perceived business risks and observed impacts of the Russian-Ukraine war among small- and medium-sized agri-food value chain enterprises in Egypt," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. Yue, Tian & Li, Lu-Lu & Ruan, Xinfeng & Zhang, Jin E., 2024. "Smirking in the energy market: Evidence from the Chinese crude oil options market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    general equilibrium trade model; global food security; quantification; Russia-Ukraine conflict; wheat crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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