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Conflict-Risk and Agricultural Portfolios: Evidence from Northern Uganda

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  • Marc Rockmore

Abstract

Although the impact of insecurity on agricultural decisions is widely discussed, it remains largely unstudied empirically. This study estimates the effect of risk of violence on livestock and crop portfolios using spatially disaggregated risk measures and data from over 690,000 households, approximately 75 per cent of all rural households in Northern Uganda. As the risk of violence increases, households decrease their livestock holdings while shifting its composition towards smaller, less risky animals that can be kept within villages. The similarly strong shifts in the choice of crops, however, are not always consistent with a shift towards less risky crops. Since households remain reliant on agriculture, these ex ante behavioural responses to insecurity suggest important consequences for welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc Rockmore, 2020. "Conflict-Risk and Agricultural Portfolios: Evidence from Northern Uganda," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 1856-1876, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:56:y:2020:i:10:p:1856-1876
    DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2019.1703953
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    Cited by:

    1. Paola Vesco & Ghassan Baliki & Tilman Brück & Debarati Guha-Sapir & Jonathan Hall & Stefan Döring & Anneli Eriksson & Hanne Fjelde & Carl Henrik Knutsen & Maxine R. Leis & Hannes Mueller & Christopher, 2024. "The impacts of armed conflict on human development: a review of the literature," HiCN Working Papers 414, Households in Conflict Network.
    2. Béné, Christophe & d'Hôtel, Elodie Maître & Pelloquin, Raphaël & Badaoui, Outman & Garba, Faroukou & Sankima, Jocelyne W., 2024. "Resilience – and collapse – of local food systems in conflict affected areas; reflections from Burkina Faso," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    3. Koppenberg, Maximilian & Mishra, Ashok K. & Hirsch, Stefan, 2023. "Food aid and violent conflict: A review and Empiricist’s companion," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    4. Kimsanova, Barchynai & Sanaev, Golib & Herzfeld, Thomas, 2024. "Dynamics of food demand during political instability: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 55(1), pages 41-53.
    5. Edmond Noubissi & Henri Njangang, 2020. "The impact of terrorism on agriculture in African countries," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(4), pages 730-743, December.
    6. Dorothy Birungi Namuyiga & Till Stellmacher & Christian Borgemeister & Jeroen C. J. Groot, 2022. "A Typology and Preferences for Pigeon Pea in Smallholder Mixed Farming Systems in Uganda," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-15, August.
    7. Godwin Okafor & Sydney Chikalipah, 2021. "Estimating the effect of terrorism on agricultural production in Nigeria," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(4), pages 703-714, December.
    8. Adong, Annet & Kornher, Lukas & Kiptoo Kirui, Oliver & von Braun, Joachim, 2021. "Conflict exposure and food consumption pathways during and after conflict: Evidence from Northern Uganda," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    9. Kibriya, Shahriar & Savio, Graham & Price, Edwin & King, Joseph, 2016. "The Role of Conflict in Farmers’ Crop Choices in North Kivu, Democratic Republic of the Congo," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 19(3), pages 1-20, August.
    10. Fadare, Olusegun & Zanello, Giacomo & Srinivasan, Chittur, 2023. "Stressor or succour? Examining the association between conflict, livestock assets, and farmers’ mental health in Nigeria," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    11. Keenan Marchesi & Marc Rockmore, 2023. "Conflict and nutrition: endogenous dietary responses in Nepal," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 15(1), pages 281-296, February.
    12. Fadare, Olusegun & Zanello, Giacomo & Srinivasan, Chittur, 2022. "The joint effects of terrorism and land access on livestock production decisions: Evidence from northern Nigeria," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    13. Avuwadah, Benjamin Y. & Kropp, Jaclyn D. & Mullally, Conner C. & Morgan, Stephen N., 2020. "Heterogenous effects of conflict on agricultural production patterns: Evidence from Nigeria," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304417, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Wendata A. Kafando & Takeshi Sakurai, 2024. "Armed conflicts and household food insecurity: Effects and mechanisms," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 55(2), pages 313-328, March.
    15. Kóczán, Zs., 2024. "Lasting scars: The long-term effects of school closures on earnings," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    16. Amaka Nnaji & Nazmun Ratna & Alan Renwick & Wanglin Ma, 2023. "Risk perception, farmer−herder conflicts and production decisions: evidence from Nigeria," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 50(2), pages 683-716.
    17. Pierre Jacquemot, 2023. "Le pastoralisme en péril en Afrique," Research papers & Policy papers on Commodities & Energy 2325, Policy Center for the New South.
    18. Ziv Bar-Nahum & Israel Finkelshtain & Rico Ihle & Ofir D. Rubin, 2020. "Effects of violent political conflict on the supply, demand and fragmentation of fresh food markets," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 12(3), pages 503-515, June.
    19. Rudolfsen, Ida & Bartusevičius, Henrikas & van Leeuwen, Florian & Østby, Gudrun, 2024. "War and food insecurity in Ukraine," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    20. Nick Vink, 2022. "African agricultural development: How are we contributing?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(4), pages 540-562, July.
    21. Koppenberg, Maximilian & Mishra, Ashok K. & Hirsch, Stefan, 2023. "Food Aid and Violent Conflict: A Review of Literature," IZA Discussion Papers 16574, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    22. Elodie Maitre d’Hôtel & Chris Béné & Raphaël Pelloquin & Outman Badaoui & Faroukou Gharba & Jocelyne Sankima, 2023. "Resilience of food system actors to armed conflicts: empirical insights from Burkina Faso," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 15(5), pages 1275-1292, October.
    23. Heidi Kaila & Larissa Nawo & Hyuk Harry Son, 2021. "Unpacking the Links between Conflict and Child Welfare: Evidence from a Foreign Insurgency," HiCN Working Papers 353, Households in Conflict Network.

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