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SSP Long Run Scenarios for European NUTS2 Regions

Author

Listed:
  • Wolfgang Britz

    (Institute for Food and Resource Economics, University of Bonn)

  • Roberto Roson

    (Department of Economics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice; GREEN Bocconi University Milan; Loyola Andalusia University)

  • Martina Sartori

    (European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Seville)

Abstract

In this paper we illustrate the development of a modeling framework aimed at producing detailed quantitative estimates for economic variables, consistent with Shared Socio-economic Pathways, and their assumptions about national income and population. Our model not only provides information on industrial production levels, employment, consumption patterns, trade flows and other macroeconomic variables, but disaggregates them further at the sub-national level, for European NUTS2 regions. Estimates are produced by an especially designed dynamic general equilibrium model (G-RDEM), augmented with a regional down-scaling module. The latter takes into account the different sectoral composition of the regional economies, their endowments of primary resources, as well as the possible existence of structural and agglomeration externalities. After describing the methodology, the paper presents an illustrative sample of results produced by the model, focusing on Italian regions and the Shared Socio-economic Pathway 1 in the period 2011-2051.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Britz & Roberto Roson & Martina Sartori, 2019. "SSP Long Run Scenarios for European NUTS2 Regions," Working Papers 2019: 22, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    • Handle: RePEc:ven:wpaper:2019:22
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Wilts, Rienne & Latka, Catharina & Britz, Wolfgang, 2020. "Who is Most Vulnerable to Climate Change Induced Yield Changes? A Dynamic Long Run Household Analysis in Lower Income Countries," Discussion Papers 305631, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shared Socio-economic Pathways; Regional Economic Growth; Dynamic General Equilibrium Models; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Long-run Economic Scenarios; Structural Change; Economic Growth; Italy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • C88 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Other Computer Software
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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