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Shaping Baseline Scenarios of Economic Activity with CGE Models: Introduction to the Special Issue

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  • Rob Dellink
  • Dominique Van der Mensbrugghe
  • Bert Saveyn

Abstract

This introductory paper to the special issue on shaping long-term baselines with Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models presents the main challenges and opportunities in constructing numerical scenarios of future economic activity using CGE models. Better understanding the role of socioeconomic drivers in baseline scenarios allows for better understanding of policy scenarios. The combined set of papers in this special issue provides three key contributions to the literature. First, it highlights the need and room for improved transparency and possibly harmonisation of baseline assumptions, while avoiding herding behaviour where all models make identical assumptions. Secondly, it raises awareness of the crucial role of the baseline in quantitative dynamic CGE analysis. Thirdly, it provides the means and incentives to modelling teams to construct more sophisticated baselines by showing practices used in advanced large-scale models and highlighting the role of different drivers. It is the objective of this special issue to set a research agenda, encouraging greater attention to baseline scenarios in the research literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Rob Dellink & Dominique Van der Mensbrugghe & Bert Saveyn, 2020. "Shaping Baseline Scenarios of Economic Activity with CGE Models: Introduction to the Special Issue," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 1-27, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gta:jnlgea:v:5:y:2020:i:1:p:1-27
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21642/JGEA.050101AF
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    2. Eddy Bekkers & Erwin Corong & Jeanne Métivier & Daniil Orlov, 2024. "How will global trade patterns evolve in the long run?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(8), pages 3578-3617, August.
    3. Moritz A. Drupp & Ulrike Kornek & Jasper N. Meya & Lutz Sager, 2021. "Inequality and the Environment: The Economics of a Two-Headed Hydra," CESifo Working Paper Series 9447, CESifo.
    4. Zhao, Xin & Calvin, Katherine V. & Wise, Marshall A. & Iyer, Gokul, 2021. "The role of global agricultural market integration in multiregional economic modeling: Using hindcast experiments to validate an Armington model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-17.
    5. Böhringer, Christoph & Peterson, Sonja & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Schneider, Jan & Winkler, Malte, 2021. "Climate policies after Paris: Pledge, Trade and Recycle," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    6. Winchester, Niven & White, Dominic, 2022. "The Climate PoLicy ANalysis (C-PLAN) Model, Version 1.0," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    7. Luyuan Xu & Wei Wang, 2021. "A Quantitative Relationship Analysis of Industry Shifts and Trade Restructuring in ASEAN Based on Multiregional Computable General Equilibrium Models," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2021, pages 1-12, February.
    8. Britz, Wolfgang & Jafari, Yaghoob & Nekhay, Olexandr & Roson, Roberto, 2022. "Assessing inequality and poverty in long-term growth projections: A general equilibrium analysis for six developing countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    9. Yu, Wusheng & Clora, Francesco & Costa, Louis & Baudry, Gino, 2021. "Dietary Transitions As Climate Mitigation Measures in Europe: Implications of Supply-Side Responses and Trade Policy Regimes," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315912, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Bekkers, Eddy & Corong, Erwin L. & Métivier, Jeanne & Orlov, Daniil, 2023. "How will global trade patterns evolve in the long run?," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2023-03, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    11. Tchoffo, Rodrigue, 2021. "Design of a Covid-19 model for environmental impact: From the partial equilibrium to the Computable General Equilibrium model," MPRA Paper 108920, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 Jul 2021.

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