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Climate Change and Economic Growth Prospects for Malawi: An Uncertainty Approach

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  • Channing Arndt
  • Adam Schlosser
  • Kenneth Strzepek
  • James Thurlow

Abstract

Malawi confronts a development imperative in a context of rising temperatures and deep uncertainty about precipitation trends. We evaluate the implications of climate change for overall growth and development prospects to 2050. We focus on three impact channels: agriculture, road infrastructure, and hydropower generation while accounting explicitly for the uncertainty in climate forecasts. We find that climate change is unlikely to substantially slow overall economic growth over the next couple of decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Channing Arndt & Adam Schlosser & Kenneth Strzepek & James Thurlow, 2014. "Climate Change and Economic Growth Prospects for Malawi: An Uncertainty Approach," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2014-013, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2014-013
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Marc Montaud, 2019. "Agricultural Drought Impacts on Crops Sector and Adaptation Options in Mali: a Macroeconomic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working papers of CATT hal-02141050, HAL.
    2. Askar Mukashov & Timothy Thomas & James Thurlow, 2024. "Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: case study of Malawi," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(6), pages 1-18, June.
    3. Channing Arndt & Finn Tarp, 2015. "Climate change impacts and adaptations: lessons learned from the greater Zambeze River Valley and beyond," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(1), pages 1-8, May.
    4. World Bank, 2016. "Malawi Urbanization Review," World Bank Publications - Reports 24391, The World Bank Group.
    5. Siddig, Khalid & Stepanyan, Davit & Wiebelt, Manfred & Grethe, Harald & Zhu, Tingju, 2020. "Climate change and agriculture in the Sudan: Impact pathways beyond changes in mean rainfall and temperature," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    6. Jean-Marc MONTAUD, 2019. "Agricultural Drought Impacts on Crops Sector and Adaptation Options in Mali: a Macroeconomic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers 2018-2019_5, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Feb 2019.
    7. Jean-Marc Montaud, 2019. "Agricultural Drought Impacts on Crops Sector and Adaptation Options in Mali: a Macroeconomic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers hal-02141050, HAL.
    8. KAMBA, Yanjanani & MAGANGA, Assa & KATENGEZA, Sam, 2020. "Drivers Of Climate Change Adaptation In Artisanal Fisheries. A Case Of Malawi," Review of Agricultural and Applied Economics (RAAE), Faculty of Economics and Management, Slovak Agricultural University in Nitra, vol. 23(1), March.
    9. Hambulo Ngoma & Patrick Lupiya & Mulako Kabisa & Faaiqa Hartley, 2021. "Impacts of climate change on agriculture and household welfare in Zambia: an economy-wide analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 1-20, August.
    10. Channing Arndt & Paul Chinowsky & Charles Fant & Sergey Paltsev & C. Adam Schlosser & Kenneth Strzepek & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2019. "Climate change and developing country growth: the cases of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 335-349, June.
    11. Darren McCauley & Rebecca Grant & Evance Mwathunga, 2022. "Achieving energy justice in Malawi: from key challenges to policy recommendations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-22, February.
    12. Harold L. W. Chisale & Paxie W. Chirwa & Folaranmi D. Babalola & Samuel O. M. Manda, 2021. "Perceived Effects of Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events on Forests and Forest-Based Livelihoods in Malawi," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-15, October.

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