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An Uncertainty Approach to Modelling Climate Change Risk in South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • James Cullis
  • Theresa Alton
  • Channing Arndt
  • Anton Cartwright
  • Alice Chang
  • Sherwin Gabriel
  • Yohannes Gebretsadik
  • Faaiqa Hartley
  • Gerald de Jager
  • Konstantin Makrelov
  • Gordon Robertson
  • Adam Schlosser
  • Kenneth Strzepek
  • James Thurlow

Abstract

This study represents the first attempt at an integrated approach to assessing the potential impacts of climate change on the national economy of South Africa via a number of (but not necessarily all) impact channels. The study focuses on outcomes by about 2050. The results show the multiple impacts of climate change and the importance of spatial and temporal variation in these impacts. The study focused in particular on the potential impacts of climate change on the water supply sector, dry-land agriculture, hydropower, roads infrastructure costs and sea level rise.

Suggested Citation

  • James Cullis & Theresa Alton & Channing Arndt & Anton Cartwright & Alice Chang & Sherwin Gabriel & Yohannes Gebretsadik & Faaiqa Hartley & Gerald de Jager & Konstantin Makrelov & Gordon Robertson & Ad, 2015. "An Uncertainty Approach to Modelling Climate Change Risk in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2015-045, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2015-045
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    File URL: https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/WP2015-045-.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Channing Arndt & William Farmer & Kenneth Strzepek & James Thurlow, 2012. "Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Tanzania," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 378-393, August.
    2. James Cullis & Ken Strzepek & Mark Tadross & Karim Sami & Beyers Havenga & Burgert Gildenhuys & Joel Smith, 2011. "Incorporating climate change into water resources planning for the town of Polokwane, South Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(3), pages 437-456, October.
    3. Dasgupta, Susmita & Laplante, Benoit & Meisner, Craig & Wheeler, David & Jianping Yan, 2007. "The impact of sea level rise on developing countries : a comparative analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4136, The World Bank.
    4. John G. Fernald, 1999. "Roads to Prosperity? Assessing the Link between Public Capital and Productivity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 619-638, June.
    5. Ahmed, Syud Amer & Diffenbaugh, Noah S. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Lobell, David B. & Ramankutty, Navin & Rios, Ana R. & Rowhani, Pedram, 2009. "Climate Volatility and Poverty Vulnerability in Tanzania," Conference papers 331847, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Channing Arndt & James Thurlow, 2015. "Climate uncertainty and economic development: evaluating the case of Mozambique to 2050," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(1), pages 63-75, May.
    7. Channing Arndt & James Thurlow, 2015. "Climate uncertainty and economic development: evaluating the case of Mozambique to 2050," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(1), pages 63-75, May.
    8. repec:unu:wpaper:wp2012-65 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Mort Webster & Andrei Sokolov & John Reilly & Chris Forest & Sergey Paltsev & Adam Schlosser & Chien Wang & David Kicklighter & Marcus Sarofim & Jerry Melillo & Ronald Prinn & Henry Jacoby, 2012. "Analysis of climate policy targets under uncertainty," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(3), pages 569-583, June.
    10. Strzepek, Kenneth & Schlosser, C. Adam, 2013. "Regional Climate Change of the Greater Zambezi River Basin: A Hybrid Assessment," WIDER Working Paper Series 040, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. Adam Schlosser & Kenneth Strzepek, 2013. "Regional Climate Change of the Greater Zambezi River Basin: A Hybrid Assessment," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2013-040, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Paltsev, Sergey, 2012. "Implications of Alternative Mitigation Policies on World Prices for Fossil Fuels and Agricultural Products," WIDER Working Paper Series 065, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
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    Cited by:

    1. Arndt, Channing & Davies, Rob & Gabriel, Sherwin & Makrelov, Konstantin & Merven, Bruno & Hartley, Faaiqa & Thurlow, James, 2016. "A sequential approach to integrated energy modeling in South Africa," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 591-599.
    2. Channing Arndt & Finn Tarp, 2015. "Climate change impacts and adaptations: lessons learned from the greater Zambeze River Valley and beyond," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(1), pages 1-8, May.
    3. Vafa Anvari & Channing Arndt & Faaiqa Hartley & Konstantin Makrelov & Kenneth Strezepek & Tim Thomas & Sherwin Gabriel & Bruno Merven, 2022. "AclimatechangemodellingframeworkforfinancialstresstestinginSouthernAfrica," Working Papers 11030, South African Reserve Bank.
    4. Brooks, Karen, . "Rising absolutely, declining relatively: agriculture, climate change, and job creation in Africa," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 57(3-4).

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