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Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: case study of Malawi

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Listed:
  • Askar Mukashov

    (International Food Policy Research Institute)

  • Timothy Thomas

    (International Food Policy Research Institute)

  • James Thurlow

    (International Food Policy Research Institute)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effectiveness of agriculture-led versus non-agriculture-led development strategies under climate-induced economic uncertainty. Utilizing Malawi as a case study, we introduce the application of Stochastic Dominance (SD) analysis, a tool from decision analysis theory, and compare the two strategies in the context of weather/climate-associated economic uncertainty. Our findings suggest that an agriculture-led development strategy consistently surpasses its non-agriculture-led antagonist in poverty and undernourishment outcomes across almost all possible weather/climate scenarios. This underscores that, despite increasing exposure of the entire economy to weather/climate uncertainty, agriculture-led development remains the optimal strategy for Malawi to reduce poverty and undernourishment. The study also endorses the broader use of SD analysis in policy planning studies, promoting its potential to integrate risk and uncertainty into policymaking.

Suggested Citation

  • Askar Mukashov & Timothy Thomas & James Thurlow, 2024. "Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: case study of Malawi," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(6), pages 1-18, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:177:y:2024:i:6:d:10.1007_s10584-024-03733-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03733-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mukashov, A., 2023. "Parameter uncertainty in policy planning models: Using portfolio management methods to choose optimal policies under world market volatility," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 187-202.
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    3. Siddig, Khalid & Stepanyan, Davit & Wiebelt, Manfred & Grethe, Harald & Zhu, Tingju, 2020. "Climate change and agriculture in the Sudan: Impact pathways beyond changes in mean rainfall and temperature," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    4. Bansal, Sangeeta & Chakravarty, Sujoy & Ramaswami, Bharat, 2013. "The informational and signaling impacts of labels: experimental evidence from India on GM foods," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(6), pages 701-722, December.
    5. Channing Arndt & Adam Schlosser & Kenneth Strzepek & James Thurlow, 2014. "Climate Change and Economic Growth Prospects for Malawi: An Uncertainty Approach," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 23(suppl_2), pages 83-107.
    6. Haim Levy, 1992. "Stochastic Dominance and Expected Utility: Survey and Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(4), pages 555-593, April.
    7. Ziesmer, Johannes & Jin, Ding & Mukashov, Askar & Henning, Christian, 2023. "Integrating fundamental model uncertainty in policy analysis," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PB).
    8. Christiaensen, Luc & Demery, Lionel & Kuhl, Jesper, 2011. "The (evolving) role of agriculture in poverty reduction--An empirical perspective," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 239-254, November.
    9. Channing Arndt & Adam Schlosser & Kenneth Strzepek & James Thurlow, 2014. "Climate Change and Economic Growth Prospects for Malawi: An Uncertainty Approach," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 23(suppl_2), pages 83-107.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate uncertainty; Development strategy; CGE modeling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • O20 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - General

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