IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpcatt/hal-02141050.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Agricultural Drought Impacts on Crops Sector and Adaptation Options in Mali: a Macroeconomic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Marc Montaud

    (CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour)

Abstract

In Mali's current context where the crops sector is particularly exposed and vulnerable to agricultural drought, this study assesses the economy-wide impacts of such events and the potential effectiveness of some adaptation strategies. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, we conduct counterfactual simulations of various scenarios accounting for different levels of intensity and frequency of droughts over a 15-year period. We first show how mild, moderate, and intense droughts currently experienced by the country affect its economic performances and considerably degrade its households' welfare. We also show how these negative impacts could be aggravated in the future by the likely increased number of intense droughts threatened by global climate change. However, we finally show that there appears to be some room for Mali to manoeuvre in terms of drought-risk management policies, such as fostering the use of drought-tolerant crop varieties, improving drought early warning systems or extending irrigation capacities.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Marc Montaud, 2019. "Agricultural Drought Impacts on Crops Sector and Adaptation Options in Mali: a Macroeconomic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working papers of CATT hal-02141050, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpcatt:hal-02141050
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-univ-pau.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02141050
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal-univ-pau.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02141050/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sassi, Maria & Cardaci, Alberto, 2013. "Impact of rainfall pattern on cereal market and food security in Sudan: Stochastic approach and CGE model," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 321-331.
    2. Channing Arndt & Adam Schlosser & Kenneth Strzepek & James Thurlow, 2014. "Climate Change and Economic Growth Prospects for Malawi: An Uncertainty Approach," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 23(suppl_2), pages 83-107.
    3. Stéphane Hallegatte, 2012. "A cost effective solution to reduce disaster losses in developing countries: hydro-meteorological services, early warning, and evacuation," Post-Print hal-00802045, HAL.
    4. Mintewab Bezabih & Muyeye Chambwera & Jesper Stage, 2011. "Climate change and total factor productivity in the Tanzanian economy," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 1289-1302, November.
    5. World Bank, 2013. "Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment in Niger : Moving from Crisis Response to Long-Term Risk Management," World Bank Publications - Reports 13260, The World Bank Group.
    6. Al-Riffai, Perrihan & Breisinger, Clemens & Verner, Dorte & Zhu, Tingju, 2012. "Droughts in Syria: An Assessment of Impacts and Options for Improving the Resilience of the Poor," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 51(1), pages 1-29, February.
    7. Marchiori, Luca & Maystadt, Jean-François & Schumacher, Ingmar, 2012. "The impact of weather anomalies on migration in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 355-374.
    8. Andrieu, N. & Sogoba, B. & Zougmore, R. & Howland, F. & Samake, O. & Bonilla-Findji, O. & Lizarazo, M. & Nowak, A. & Dembele, C. & Corner-Dolloff, C., 2017. "Prioritizing investments for climate-smart agriculture: Lessons learned from Mali," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 13-24.
    9. Pauw, Karl & Thurlow, James & Bachu, Murthy & Van Seventer, Dirk Ernst, 2011. "The economic costs of extreme weather events: a hydrometeorological CGE analysis for Malawi," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 177-198, April.
    10. Julius Kotir, 2011. "Climate change and variability in Sub-Saharan Africa: a review of current and future trends and impacts on agriculture and food security," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 587-605, June.
    11. Channing Arndt & Adam Schlosser & Kenneth Strzepek & James Thurlow, 2014. "Climate Change and Economic Growth Prospects for Malawi: An Uncertainty Approach," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 23(suppl_2), pages 83-107.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Escalante, Luis Enrique & Maisonnave, Helene, 2022. "Impacts of climate disasters on women and food security in Bolivia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jean-Marc MONTAUD, 2019. "Agricultural Drought Impacts on Crops Sector and Adaptation Options in Mali: a Macroeconomic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers 2018-2019_5, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Feb 2019.
    2. Jean-Marc Montaud, 2019. "Agricultural Drought Impacts on Crops Sector and Adaptation Options in Mali: a Macroeconomic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers hal-02141050, HAL.
    3. Montaud, Jean-Marc & Pecastaing, Nicolas & Tankari, Mahamadou, 2017. "Potential socio-economic implications of future climate change and variability for Nigerien agriculture: A countrywide dynamic CGE-Microsimulation analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 128-142.
    4. Escalante, Luis Enrique & Maisonnave, Helene, 2022. "Impacts of climate disasters on women and food security in Bolivia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    5. Harold L. W. Chisale & Paxie W. Chirwa & Folaranmi D. Babalola & Samuel O. M. Manda, 2021. "Perceived Effects of Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events on Forests and Forest-Based Livelihoods in Malawi," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-15, October.
    6. Siddig, Khalid & Stepanyan, Davit & Wiebelt, Manfred & Grethe, Harald & Zhu, Tingju, 2020. "Climate change and agriculture in the Sudan: Impact pathways beyond changes in mean rainfall and temperature," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    7. Askar Mukashov & Timothy Thomas & James Thurlow, 2024. "Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: case study of Malawi," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(6), pages 1-18, June.
    8. Darren McCauley & Rebecca Grant & Evance Mwathunga, 2022. "Achieving energy justice in Malawi: from key challenges to policy recommendations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-22, February.
    9. Channing Arndt & Paul Chinowsky & Charles Fant & Sergey Paltsev & C. Adam Schlosser & Kenneth Strzepek & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2019. "Climate change and developing country growth: the cases of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 335-349, June.
    10. Elizabeth L. Roos & Heinrich R. Bohlmann & Jan H. van Heerden & Nicholas Kilimani, 2016. "Counting the cost of drought induced productivity losses in an agro-based economy: The case of Uganda," Working Papers 616, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    11. World Bank, 2016. "Malawi Urbanization Review," World Bank Publications - Reports 24391, The World Bank Group.
    12. Hambulo Ngoma & Patrick Lupiya & Mulako Kabisa & Faaiqa Hartley, 2021. "Impacts of climate change on agriculture and household welfare in Zambia: an economy-wide analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 1-20, August.
    13. Federica Cappelli, 2020. "Investigating the Origins of Differentiated Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and their Effects on Wellbeing," Working Papers 2020.21, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    14. Lloyd Chigusiwa & George Kembo & Terrence Kairiza, 2023. "Drought and social conflict in rural Zimbabwe: Does the burden fall on women and girls?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 178-197, February.
    15. Simin Mehdipour & Nouzar Nakhaee & Farzaneh Zolala & Maryam Okhovati & Afsar Foroud & Ali Akbar Haghdoost, 2022. "A systematized review exploring the map of publications on the health impacts of drought," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(1), pages 35-62, August.
    16. KAMBA, Yanjanani & MAGANGA, Assa & KATENGEZA, Sam, 2020. "Drivers Of Climate Change Adaptation In Artisanal Fisheries. A Case Of Malawi," Review of Agricultural and Applied Economics (RAAE), Faculty of Economics and Management, Slovak Agricultural University in Nitra, vol. 23(1), March.
    17. Channing Arndt & Finn Tarp, 2015. "Climate change impacts and adaptations: lessons learned from the greater Zambeze River Valley and beyond," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(1), pages 1-8, May.
    18. van Bergeijk, P.A.G. & Lazzaroni, S., 2013. "Macroeconomics of natural disasters," ISS Working Papers - General Series 50075, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    19. Shaikh M. S. U. Eskander & Sam Fankhauser, 2022. "Income Diversification and Income Inequality: Household Responses to the 2013 Floods in Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, January.
    20. Jean Gabszewicz & Ornella Tarola & Skerdilajda Zanaj, 2016. "Migration, wages and income taxes," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 23(3), pages 434-453, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpcatt:hal-02141050. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.