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Assessing the likelihood of regional climate change over the Nile River basin and northern Africa: A hybrid assessment

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  • Adam Schlosser
  • Kenneth Strzepek

Abstract

Projections of regional changes in surface air temperature and precipitation for the greater Nile River basin and northern Africa are presented. The probabilistic projections are obtained through a technique that combines projections of the MIT Integrated Global System Model with climate-change patterns of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Overall, the most consistent response to climate policy is seen in the distributions of temperature change. For precipitation, the predominant climate stabilization response is to reduce the likelihood of modal change.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Schlosser & Kenneth Strzepek, 2015. "Assessing the likelihood of regional climate change over the Nile River basin and northern Africa: A hybrid assessment," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2015-152, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2015-152
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    File URL: https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/Publications/Working-paper/PDF/wp2015-152.pdf
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    1. Channing Arndt & Julia Kozlitina & Paul V. Preckel, 2006. "Efficient survey sampling of households via Gaussian quadrature," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 55(3), pages 355-364, May.
    2. C. Schlosser & Kenneth Strzepek, 2015. "Regional climate change of the greater Zambezi River Basin: a hybrid assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(1), pages 9-19, May.
    3. Mort Webster & Andrei Sokolov & John Reilly & Chris Forest & Sergey Paltsev & Adam Schlosser & Chien Wang & David Kicklighter & Marcus Sarofim & Jerry Melillo & Ronald Prinn & Henry Jacoby, 2012. "Analysis of climate policy targets under uncertainty," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(3), pages 569-583, June.
    4. Strzepek, Kenneth & Schlosser, C. Adam, 2013. "Regional Climate Change of the Greater Zambezi River Basin: A Hybrid Assessment," WIDER Working Paper Series 040, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Adam Schlosser & Kenneth Strzepek, 2013. "Regional Climate Change of the Greater Zambezi River Basin: A Hybrid Assessment," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2013-040, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
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