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Effects of climate change on U.S. grain transport

Author

Listed:
  • Attavanich, Witsanu
  • McCarl, Bruce A.
  • Ahmedov, Zafarbek
  • Fuller, Stephen W.
  • Vedenov, Dmitry V.

Abstract

The United States is a global grain supplier. Agriculture uses 22 percent of all U.S. transported tonnage with grain being the largest component. Crop mix shifts are an often cited consequence of climate change and such shifts may change the demands grain places on the transport system. Studies also find that climate change could decrease Great Lakes water levels, shorten the duration of ice cover in the winter, and alter grain supplies in grain exporting countries. This study investigates the effects of such phenomena on U.S. grain transportation movements both in volumes and modes. Specifically we examine the effects of possible shifts in: crop production patterns; Great Lakes water levels; winter navigation possibilities; and foreign grain production. We find that crop mix shifts reduce the importance of Lower Mississippi River (LMR) ports, but increase the role of Pacific Northwest ports, Great Lakes ports, and Atlantic ports. We also find a shift from barge to rail and truck transport. Conversely, a longer navigation season or a reduction in Great Lake water levels increases grain shipments to the LMR ports. Higher use of Great Lakes ports occurs under a reduction of grain production in European exporting countries that compete with Great Lakes ports.

Suggested Citation

  • Attavanich, Witsanu & McCarl, Bruce A. & Ahmedov, Zafarbek & Fuller, Stephen W. & Vedenov, Dmitry V., 2012. "Effects of climate change on U.S. grain transport," MPRA Paper 84037, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:84037
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fellin, Luis & Fuller, Stephen & Kruse, John & Meyer, Seth D. & Womack, Abner, 2008. "The Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers as Grain Transport Arteries: A Spatial Mapping Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 47(2).
    2. Fuller, Stephen & Millerd, Frank & Fraire, Francisco & do Carmo Afonso, Maria, 2009. "Analysis of Factors Influencing Grain Traffic on the St. Lawrence Seaway," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 48(2).
    3. Frank Millerd, 2011. "The potential impact of climate change on Great Lakes international shipping," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 629-652, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Haowen You & Elizabeth B. Connelly & James H. Lambert & Andres F. Clarens, 2014. "Climate and other scenarios disrupt priorities in several management perspectives," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 540-554, December.
    2. Brown, Molly E. & Carr, Edward R. & Grace, Kathryn L. & Wiebe, Keith & Funk, Christopher C. & Attavanich, Witsanu & Backlund, Peter & Buja, Lawrence, 2017. "Do markets and trade help or hurt the global food system adapt to climate change?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 154-159.
    3. Golecha, Rajdeep & Gan, Jianbang, 2016. "Effects of corn stover year-to-year supply variability and market structure on biomass utilization and cost," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 34-44.
    4. Brown, Molly & Antle, John & Backlund, Peter & Carr, Edward & Easterling, Bill & Walsh, Margaret & Ammann, Caspar & Attavanich, Witsanu & Barrett, Chris & Bellemare, Marc & Dancheck, Violet & Funk, Ch, 2015. "Climate Change, Global Food Security and the U.S. Food System," MPRA Paper 105772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano & Bozzola, Martina & Lamonaca, Emilia, 2020. "Impacts of Climate Change on Global Agri-Food Trade," 2019: Recent Advances in Applied General Equilibrium Modeling: Relevance and Application to Agricultural Trade Analysis, December 8-10, 2019, Washington, DC 339375, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    6. Attavanich, Witsanu, 2017. "Effect of climate change on Thailand’s agriculture: New results," MPRA Paper 118290, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Witsanu Attavanich & Bruce McCarl, 2014. "How is CO 2 affecting yields and technological progress? A statistical analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(4), pages 747-762, June.
    8. Mei, Dexiang & Xie, Yutang, 2022. "U.S. grain commodity futures price volatility: Does trade policy uncertainty matter?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    9. Bruce A McCarl & Thomas W Hertel, 2018. "Climate Change as an Agricultural Economics Research Topic," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 60-78.
    10. Attavanich, Witsanu, 2013. "The Effect of Climate Change on Thailand’s Agriculture," MPRA Paper 84005, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2014.
    11. Cho, Sung Ju & McCarl, Bruce A. & Wu, Ximing, 2014. "Climate Change Adaptation and Shifts in Land Use for Major Crops in the U.S," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170015, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Pipitpukdee, Siwabhorn & Attavanich, Witsanu & Bejranonda, Somskaow, 2020. "Climate Change Impacts on Sugarcane Production in Thailand," MPRA Paper 99796, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Apr 2020.
    13. Brown, M.E. & et al. [+21], 2015. "Climate Change, Global Food Security, and the U.S. Food System," USDA Miscellaneous 337546, United States Department of Agriculture.
    14. Dumortier, Jerome, 2016. "Changing agricultural land-use in the United States and its implications for ecosystem services," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235653, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; grain transport; United States; agricultural transportation; food system activity; Crop mix shifts; corn; soybean;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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