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Climate Change Impacts on Sugarcane Production in Thailand

Author

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  • Pipitpukdee, Siwabhorn
  • Attavanich, Witsanu
  • Bejranonda, Somskaow

Abstract

This study investigated the impact of climate change on yield, harvested area, and production of sugarcane in Thailand using spatial regression together with an instrumental variable approach to address the possible selection bias. The data were comprised of new fine-scale weather outcomes merged together with a provincial-level panel of crops that spanned all provinces in Thailand from 1989–2016. We found that in general climate variables, both mean and variability, statistically determined the yield and harvested area of sugarcane. Increased population density reduced the harvested area for non-agricultural use. Considering simultaneous changes in climate and demand of land for non-agricultural development, we reveal that the future sugarcane yield, harvested area, and production are projected to decrease by 23.95%–33.26%, 1.29%–2.49%, and 24.94%–34.93% during 2046–2055 from the baseline, respectively. Sugarcane production is projected to have the largest drop in the eastern and lower section of the central regions. Given the role of Thailand as a global exporter of sugar and the importance of sugarcane production in Thai agriculture, the projected declines in the production could adversely affect the well-being of one million sugarcane growers and the stability of sugar price in the world market.

Suggested Citation

  • Pipitpukdee, Siwabhorn & Attavanich, Witsanu & Bejranonda, Somskaow, 2020. "Climate Change Impacts on Sugarcane Production in Thailand," MPRA Paper 99796, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Apr 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:99796
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Witsanu Attavanich & Bruce A. McCarl & Zafarbek Ahmedov & Stephen W. Fuller & Dmitry V. Vedenov, 2013. "Effects of climate change on US grain transport," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(7), pages 638-643, July.
    2. Hongli Feng & Bruce A. Babcock, 2010. "Impacts of Ethanol on Planted Acreage in Market Equilibrium," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(3), pages 789-802.
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    4. Wallysson Klebson Medeiros Silva & Graziela Pinto Freitas & Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior & Pablo Aurélio Lacerda Almeida Pinto & Raphael Abrahão, 2019. "Effects of climate change on sugarcane production in the state of Paraíba (Brazil): a panel data approach (1990–2015)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 195-209, May.
    5. Brown, Molly & Antle, John & Backlund, Peter & Carr, Edward & Easterling, Bill & Walsh, Margaret & Ammann, Caspar & Attavanich, Witsanu & Barrett, Chris & Bellemare, Marc & Dancheck, Violet & Funk, Ch, 2015. "Climate Change, Global Food Security and the U.S. Food System," MPRA Paper 105772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-771, September.
    7. Brown, Molly E. & Carr, Edward R. & Grace, Kathryn L. & Wiebe, Keith & Funk, Christopher C. & Attavanich, Witsanu & Backlund, Peter & Buja, Lawrence, 2017. "Do markets and trade help or hurt the global food system adapt to climate change?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 154-159.
    8. Witsanu Attavanich & Bruce McCarl, 2014. "How is CO 2 affecting yields and technological progress? A statistical analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(4), pages 747-762, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jidapa Khonghintaisong & Anocha Onkaeo & Patcharin Songsri & Nakorn Jongrungklang, 2024. "Water Use Efficiency Characteristics and Their Contributions to Yield in Diverse Sugarcane Genotypes with Varying Drought Resistance Levels Under Different Field Irrigation Conditions," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-20, October.
    2. Siwabhorn Pipitpukdee & Witsanu Attavanich & Somskaow Bejranonda, 2020. "Impact of Climate Change on Land Use, Yield and Production of Cassava in Thailand," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-14, September.
    3. Benjapon Prommawin & Nattanun Svavasu & Spol Tanpraphan & Voravee Saengavut & Theepakorn Jithitikulchai & Witsanu Attavanich & Bruce A. McCarl, 2024. "Impacts of climate change and agricultural diversification on agricultural production value of Thai farm households," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(7), pages 1-26, July.
    4. Attavanich, Witsanu, 2023. "A Review of the Impact of Climate Change on Food Security and Co-Benefits of Adaptation and Mitigation Options in Thailand," MPRA Paper 119565, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Sep 2023.
    5. Chaitat Jirophat & Pym Manopimoke & Suparit Suwanik, 2022. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Shocks in Thailand," PIER Discussion Papers 188, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Srisunont, Chayarat & Srisunont, Treeranut & Babel, Sandhya, 2022. "Development of models for sustainable green mussel cultivation under climate change events," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 473(C).
    7. Thiago Vizine Da Cruz & Ricardo Luiz Machado, 2023. "Increasing Sugarcane Production Eco-Efficiency: A DEA Analysis with Different Sugarcane Varieties," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-22, July.
    8. Philip Kofi Adom, 2024. "The Socioeconomic Impact of Climate Change in Developing Countries in the Next Decades," Working Papers 681, Center for Global Development.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change impacts; sugarcane; yield; harvested area; production; Thai agriculture;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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