IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v138y2016i1d10.1007_s10584-016-1721-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fine-scale spatial variation in ice cover and surface temperature trends across the surface of the Laurentian Great Lakes

Author

Listed:
  • Lacey A. Mason

    (University of Michigan
    Institute for Fisheries Research, University of Michigan and Michigan Department of Natural Resources)

  • Catherine M. Riseng

    (University of Michigan)

  • Andrew D. Gronewold

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory)

  • Edward S. Rutherford

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory)

  • Jia Wang

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory)

  • Anne Clites

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory)

  • Sigrid D. P. Smith

    (University of Michigan)

  • Peter B. McIntyre

    (University of Wisconsin-Madison)

Abstract

The effects of climate change on north temperate freshwater ecosystems include increasing water temperatures and decreasing ice cover. Here we compare those trends in the Laurentian Great Lakes at three spatial scales to evaluate how warming varies across the surface of these massive inland water bodies. We compiled seasonal ice cover duration (1973–2013) and lake summer surface water temperatures (LSSWT; 1994–2013), and analyzed spatial patterns and trends at lake-wide, lake sub-basin, and fine spatial scales and compared those to reported lake- and basin-wide trends. At the lake-wide scale we found declining ice duration and warming LSSWT patterns consistent with previous studies. At the lake sub-basin scale, our statistical models identified distinct warming trends within each lake that included significant breakpoints in ice duration for 13 sub-basins, consistent linear declines in 11 sub-basins, and no trends in 4 sub-basins. At the finest scale, we found that the northern- and eastern-most portions of each Great Lake, especially in nearshore areas, have experienced faster rates of LSSWT warming and shortening ice duration than those previously reported from trends at the lake scale. We conclude that lake-level analyses mask significant spatial and temporal variation in warming patterns within the Laurentian Great Lakes. Recognizing spatial variability in rates of change can inform both mechanistic modeling of ecosystem responses and planning for long-term management of these large freshwater ecosystems.

Suggested Citation

  • Lacey A. Mason & Catherine M. Riseng & Andrew D. Gronewold & Edward S. Rutherford & Jia Wang & Anne Clites & Sigrid D. P. Smith & Peter B. McIntyre, 2016. "Fine-scale spatial variation in ice cover and surface temperature trends across the surface of the Laurentian Great Lakes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 71-83, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:138:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1721-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1721-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-016-1721-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-016-1721-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Catherine M. O'Reilly & Simone R. Alin & Pierre-Denis Plisnier & Andrew S. Cohen & Brent A. McKee, 2003. "Climate change decreases aquatic ecosystem productivity of Lake Tanganyika, Africa," Nature, Nature, vol. 424(6950), pages 766-768, August.
    2. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika Van Der Linde, 2002. "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 583-639, October.
    3. Frank Millerd, 2011. "The potential impact of climate change on Great Lakes international shipping," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 629-652, February.
    4. Andrew Gronewold & Vincent Fortin & Brent Lofgren & Anne Clites & Craig Stow & Frank Quinn, 2013. "Coasts, water levels, and climate change: A Great Lakes perspective," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(4), pages 697-711, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xialong Ji & Andrew D. Gronewold & Houraa Daher & Richard B. Rood, 2019. "Modeling seasonal onset of coastal ice," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 125-141, May.
    2. Xinyu Li & Shushi Peng & Yi Xi & R. Iestyn Woolway & Gang Liu, 2022. "Earlier ice loss accelerates lake warming in the Northern Hemisphere," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Jake F. Weltzin & Julio L. Betancourt & Benjamin I. Cook & Theresa M. Crimmins & Carolyn A. F. Enquist & Michael D. Gerst & John E. Gross & Geoffrey M. Henebry & Rebecca A. Hufft & Melissa A. Kenney &, 2020. "Seasonality of biological and physical systems as indicators of climatic variation and change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 1755-1771, December.
    4. Jisesh Sethunadh & F. W. Letson & R. J. Barthelmie & S. C. Pryor, 2023. "Assessing the impact of global warming on windstorms in the northeastern United States using the pseudo-global-warming method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 2807-2834, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Buddhavarapu, Prasad & Bansal, Prateek & Prozzi, Jorge A., 2021. "A new spatial count data model with time-varying parameters," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 566-586.
    2. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "Common and country specific economic uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 205-216.
    3. Christina Leuker & Thorsten Pachur & Ralph Hertwig & Timothy J. Pleskac, 2019. "Do people exploit risk–reward structures to simplify information processing in risky choice?," Journal of the Economic Science Association, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 5(1), pages 76-94, August.
    4. Rubio, F.J. & Steel, M.F.J., 2011. "Inference for grouped data with a truncated skew-Laplace distribution," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(12), pages 3218-3231, December.
    5. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2019. "Financial regimes and uncertainty shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 31-46.
    6. Svetlana V. Tishkovskaya & Paul G. Blackwell, 2021. "Bayesian estimation of heterogeneous environments from animal movement data," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), September.
    7. Leonardo Oliveira Martins & Hirohisa Kishino, 2010. "Distribution of distances between topologies and its effect on detection of phylogenetic recombination," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 62(1), pages 145-159, February.
    8. Tamal Ghosh & Malay Ghosh & Jerry J. Maples & Xueying Tang, 2022. "Multivariate Global-Local Priors for Small Area Estimation," Stats, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-16, July.
    9. Eibich, Peter & Ziebarth, Nicolas, 2014. "Examining the Structure of Spatial Health Effects in Germany Using Hierarchical Bayes Models," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 49, pages 305-320.
    10. Wu, Ji & Guo, Mengmeng & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2019. "Market power and risk-taking of banks: Some semiparametric evidence from emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    11. repec:jss:jstsof:21:i08 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Deng, Yaguo, 2016. "Efficiency evaluation of Spanish hotel chains," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 23897, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    13. Cathy W. S. Chen & Sangyeol Lee, 2017. "Bayesian causality test for integer-valued time series models with applications to climate and crime data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(4), pages 797-814, August.
    14. Makoto Chikaraishi & Akimasa Fujiwara & Junyi Zhang & Kay Axhausen, 2011. "Identifying variations and co-variations in discrete choice models," Transportation, Springer, vol. 38(6), pages 993-1016, November.
    15. Galatia Cleanthous & Emilio Porcu & Philip White, 2021. "Regularity and approximation of Gaussian random fields evolving temporally over compact two-point homogeneous spaces," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 30(4), pages 836-860, December.
    16. Baños-Pino, José F. & Boto-García, David & Zapico, Emma, 2021. "Persistence and dynamics in the efficiency of toll motorways: The Spanish case," Efficiency Series Papers 2021/03, University of Oviedo, Department of Economics, Oviedo Efficiency Group (OEG).
    17. Xing Ju Lee & Christopher C. Drovandi & Anthony N. Pettitt, 2015. "Model choice problems using approximate Bayesian computation with applications to pathogen transmission data sets," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 198-207, March.
    18. Chaix, Basile & Jouven, Xavier & Thomas, Frédérique & Leal, Cinira & Billaudeau, Nathalie & Bean, Kathy & Kestens, Yan & Jëgo, Bertrand & Pannier, Bruno & Danchin, Nicolas, 2011. "Why socially deprived populations have a faster resting heart rate: Impact of behaviour, life course anthropometry, and biology – the RECORD Cohort Study," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 73(10), pages 1543-1550.
    19. Emilio Augusto Coelho-Barros & Jorge Alberto Achcar & Josmar Mazucheli, 2010. "Longitudinal Poisson modeling: an application for CD4 counting in HIV-infected patients," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(5), pages 865-880.
    20. Mayer Alvo & Jingrui Mu, 2023. "COVID-19 Data Analysis Using Bayesian Models and Nonparametric Geostatistical Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-13, March.
    21. Ye, Mao & Lu, Zhao-Hua & Li, Yimei & Song, Xinyuan, 2019. "Finite mixture of varying coefficient model: Estimation and component selection," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 452-474.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:138:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1721-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.