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The Effect of Climate Change on Transportation Flows and Inland Waterways Due to Climate-Induced Shifts in Crop Production Patterns

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  • Attavanich, Witsanu
  • McCarl, Bruce A.
  • Fuller, Stephen W.
  • Vedenov, Dmitry V.
  • Ahmedov, Zafarbek

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the effect of climate change on transportation flows and inland waterways in the Mississippi River Basin due to climate-induced shifts in crop production patterns in 2050 using two large scale modeling systems, an Agricultural Sector Model (ASM) and an International Grain Transportation Model (IGTM), with technical approach developed to link the two models. Simulated results from ASM show that 1) US and total social welfare rises; 2) crop producer welfare varies across US regions; 3) production and prices of all crops including corn and soybeans also varies; 4) National total cropland use increases with the expansion of irrigated land and contraction of dryland. After breaking down crop acreage results of ASM to the county level and reaggregating to the crop reporting district (CRD) level, which is the spatial scale employed in IGTM. Our study finds that overall supply of corn and soybeans likely increases in the Northern part, while it tends to decline in some areas from Central to Southern parts of the US. By subtracting demand for grains assumed to constant overtime with simulated supply of grains, we obtain the amount of excess supply and demand for grains, which are used as inputs in IGTM. Various interested findings from IGTM are revealed. For example, Corn Belt, the largest producer of corn in the US, is anticipated to ship less corn supply to Pacific, Northeast, Rocky Mountains, Southeast, and Mississippi Lower ports, while the Great Lakes ports, Lake States, and the Great Plains are expected to receive higher corn shipments from Corn Belt. For the aspect of export, the importance of Lower Mississippi ports, the largest destination for grain export from the US to the rest of the world, is going to diminish, where as the role of Pacific Northwest ports are simulated to increase. Considering overall demand for modes of transportation for total grain shipments, demand for rail and truck is expected to rise, while demand for barge mode is projected to drop.

Suggested Citation

  • Attavanich, Witsanu & McCarl, Bruce A. & Fuller, Stephen W. & Vedenov, Dmitry V. & Ahmedov, Zafarbek, 2011. "The Effect of Climate Change on Transportation Flows and Inland Waterways Due to Climate-Induced Shifts in Crop Production Patterns," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 109241, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea11:109241
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.109241
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Schlenker, Wolfram & Hanemann, W Michael & Fisher, Anthony C, 2007. "Water Availability, Degree Days, and the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Irrigated Agriculture in California," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt8q8309qn, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    2. Chen, Chi-Chung & McCarl, Bruce, 2009. "Hurricanes and Possible Intensity Increases: Effects on and Reactions from U.S. Agriculture," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 125-144, April.
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    6. Attavanich, Witsanu & McCarl, Bruce A., 2011. "The Effect of Climate Change, CO2 Fertilization, and Crop Production Technology on Crop Yields and Its Economic Implications on Market Outcomes and Welfare Distribution," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103324, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
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    9. McCarl, Bruce A. & Attavanich, Witsanu & Musumba, Mark & Mu, Jianhong E. & Aisabokhae, Ruth, 2011. "Land Use and Climate Change," MPRA Paper 83993, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.
    10. Frank Millerd, 2011. "The potential impact of climate change on Great Lakes international shipping," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 629-652, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. McCarl, Bruce A. & Attavanich, Witsanu & Musumba, Mark & Mu, Jianhong E. & Aisabokhae, Ruth, 2011. "Land Use and Climate Change," MPRA Paper 83993, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.
    2. Attavanich, Witsanu & Rashford, Benjamin S. & Adams, Richard M. & McCarl, Bruce A., 2011. "Land Use, Climate Change and Ecosystem Services," MPRA Paper 83947, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2013.

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    Keywords

    Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Relations/Trade; Land Economics/Use;
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