IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/56727.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do export price elasticities support tensions in currency markets? Evidence from China and six OECD countries

Author

Listed:
  • Aiello, Francesco
  • Bonanno, Graziella
  • Via, Alessia

Abstract

The empirical literature on trade imbalances does not make currency tensions easy to understand, because tensions across traders originate from the assumption that export-price elasticity is high. This paper provides new evidence by analysing the export-behaviour of China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, and the USA from 1990 to 2012. Estimates of export-price elasticities have been made using panel data techniques for non-stationary data. Long run relationships are stable to any structural break and indicate that exports are heavily dependent on world income, with long run income elasticity significantly higher than unity in many cases (China, Japan, Germany, UK and USA). Conversely, exports are price inelastic for most of the countries in the sample, in both the long and short runs. The exception is France, whose exports in the long run would increase by 2 percent if the country experienced a 1 percent depreciation of its real exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Aiello, Francesco & Bonanno, Graziella & Via, Alessia, 2014. "Do export price elasticities support tensions in currency markets? Evidence from China and six OECD countries," MPRA Paper 56727, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:56727
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/56727/1/MPRA_paper_56727.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhizhong Yao & Feng Tian & Qingyi Su, 2013. "Income and Price Elasticities of China's Exports," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 21(1), pages 91-106, January.
    2. Shigeyuki Hamori & Yoichi Matsubayashi, 2009. "Empirical analysis of export demand behavior of LDCs: Panel cointegration approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 1990-1999.
    3. Ms. Ruo Chen & Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti & Mr. Thierry Tressel, 2012. "External Imbalances in the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 2012/236, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
    5. Jacobi, Lena & Kluve, Jochen, 2006. "Before and After the Hartz Reforms: The Performance of Active Labour Market Policy in Germany," RWI Discussion Papers 41, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    6. Mario Macis & Fabiano Schivardi, 2016. "Exports and Wages: Rent Sharing, Workforce Composition, or Returns to Skills?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(4), pages 945-978.
    7. THORBECKE, Willem, 2012. "The Short- and Long-Run Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on the Japanese Electronics Industry," Discussion papers 12019, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    8. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    9. Willem Thorbecke & Atsuyuki Kato, 2011. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Japanese Consumption Exports," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23238, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    10. Thorbecke, Willem, 2011. "Investigating the effect of exchange rate changes on china's processed exports," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 33-46, June.
    11. Mr. Jarkko Turunen & Mr. Richard T. Harmsen & Mr. Tamim Bayoumi, 2011. "Euro Area Export Performance and Competitiveness," IMF Working Papers 2011/140, International Monetary Fund.
    12. THORBECKE, Willem & KATO Atsuyuki, 2012. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Germany's Exports," Discussion papers 12081, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    13. Bernardina Algieri, 2011. "Modelling export equations using an unobserved component model: the case of the Euro Area and its competitors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 593-637, December.
    14. Natalya Ketenci & Idil Uz, 2011. "Bilateral and regional trade elasticities of the EU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 839-854, May.
    15. Jacobi, Lena & Kluve, Jochen, 2006. "Before and After the Hartz Reforms: The Performance of Active Labour Market Policy in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 2100, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Abdelhak S. Senhadji & Claudio E. Montenegro, 1999. "Time Series Analysis of Export Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 1-2.
    17. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    18. Fengbao Yin & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2011. "Estimating the import demand function in the autoregressive distributed lag framework: The case of China," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(2), pages 1576-1591.
    19. Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-125, May.
    20. Kerr, William A. & Hobbs, Anna L., 2001. "Taming the Dragon: The WTO After the Accession of China," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 2(1), pages 1-9.
    21. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    22. Kravis, Irving B. & Lipsey, Robert E., 1978. "Price behavior in the light of balance of payments theories," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 193-246, May.
    23. Michael A. S. Joyce & Ana Lasaosa & Ibrahim Stevens & Matthew Tong, 2011. "The Financial Market Impact of Quantitative Easing in the United Kingdom," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(3), pages 113-161, September.
    24. Leland D. Crane & Meredith A. Crowley & Saad Quayyum, 2007. "Understanding the evolution of trade deficits: trade elasticities of industrialized countries," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 31(Q IV), pages 2-17.
    25. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Niroomand, Farhang, 1998. "Long-run price elasticities and the Marshall-Lerner condition revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 101-109, October.
    26. Martine Durand & Christophe Madaschi & Flavia Terribile, 1998. "Trends in OECD Countries' International Competitiveness: The Influence of Emerging Market Economies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 195, OECD Publishing.
    27. Robert M. Stern & Jonathan Francis & Bruce Schumacher, 1976. "Price Elasticities in International Trade," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-03137-5, October.
    28. Markus Eberhardt, 2011. "Panel time-series modeling: New tools for analyzing xt data," United Kingdom Stata Users' Group Meetings 2011 22, Stata Users Group.
    29. Sawyer, W. Charles & Sprinkle, Richard L., 1997. "The Demand for Imports and Exports in Japan: A Survey," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 247-259, June.
    30. repec:zbw:rwidps:0041 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Chui, Michael K F, 1999. "Estimating Income and Price Elasticities of Trade in a Cointegration Framework," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 254-264, May.
    32. Megumi Kubota, "undated". "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments: Theoretical Modelling and Empirical Evidence," Discussion Papers 09/24, Department of Economics, University of York.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francesco Aiello & Graziella Bonanno & Alessia Via, 2015. "Again on trade elasticities: evidence from a selected sample of countries," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 5(2), pages 259-287, December.
    2. Francesco Aiello & Graziella Bonanno & Alessia Via, 2015. "New Evidence on Export Price Elasticity from China and Six OECD Countries," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 23(6), pages 56-78, November.
    3. Ngomba Bodi, Francis Ghislain, 2018. "Estimation des élasticités du commerce extérieur dans des économies en développement riches en ressources naturelles : le cas des pays de la CEMAC [Estimation of trade elasticities in resources ric," MPRA Paper 116378, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Kiyotaka Sato & Junko Shimizu & Nagendra Shrestha & Shajuan Zhang, 2013. "Industry-specific Real Effective Exchange Rates and Export Price Competitiveness: The Cases of Japan, China, and Korea," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 8(2), pages 298-321, December.
    5. Bernardina Algieri, 2015. "Price and non-price competitiveness in export demand: empirical evidence from Italy," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 157-183, February.
    6. Baak, SaangJoon, 2014. "Do Chinese and Korean products compete in the Japanese market? An investigation of machinery exports," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 256-271.
    7. Martin Gürtler, 2019. "Dynamic analysis of trade balance behavior in a small open economy: the J-curve phenomenon and the Czech economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 469-497, February.
    8. Bruno Ducoudré & Eric Heyer, 2014. "Baisse de l'euro et désinflation compétitive," Post-Print hal-01093016, HAL.
    9. Konstantinos Chisiridis & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2018. "The Relationship Between Greek Exports and Foreign Income," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 64(1), pages 99-114.
    10. Xavier Timbeau, 2014. "Le piège de la déflation : Perspectives 2014-2015," Post-Print hal-03460404, HAL.
    11. Ercan Yasar & Güray Akalin & Sinan Erdogan & Samuel Asumadu Sarkodie, 2022. "Trading Kuznets curve: empirical analysis for China," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 741-768, August.
    12. Shigeyuki Hamori & Yoichi Matsubayashi, 2009. "Empirical analysis of export demand behavior of LDCs: Panel cointegration approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 1990-1999.
    13. Fedoseeva, Svetlana & Zeidan, Rodrigo, 2016. "A dead-end tunnel or the light at the end of it: The role of BRICs in European exports," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 237-248.
    14. Bernardina Algieri, 2014. "Drivers of Export Demand: A Focus on the GIIPS Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(10), pages 1454-1482, October.
    15. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/c6c7hcjgm915q0m9u9i8r91sb is not listed on IDEAS
    16. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1h97uoi1ng8t5q1gqhfd257dam is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Ihsan Bozok & Bahar Sen Dogan & Caglar Yunculer, 2015. "Estimating Income and Price Elasticity of Turkish Exports with Heterogeneous Panel Time-Series Methods," Working Papers 1526, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    18. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/c6c7hcjgm915q0m9u9i8r91sb is not listed on IDEAS
    19. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1h97uoi1ng8t5q1gqhfd257dam is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Amr Hosny, 2015. "Commodity trade between EU and Egypt and Orcutt’s hypothesis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 1-24, February.
    21. Jos Alberto Fuinhas & Ant nio Cardoso Marques & Alcino Pinto Couto, 2015. "Oil-Growth Nexus in Oil Producing Countries: Macro Panel Evidence," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(1), pages 148-163.
    22. Lücke Dorothea & Schröder Philipp J.Η. & Schumacher Dieter, 2005. "A Note on R&D and Price Elasticity of Demand," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 225(6), pages 688-698, December.
    23. Dorothea Lucke & Philipp J. H. Schröder & Dieter Schumacher, 2004. "R&D and Price Elasticity of Demand," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 430, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    24. Timo Bettendorf & Miguel A. León‐Ledesma, 2019. "German Wage Moderation and European Imbalances: Feeding the Global VAR with Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(2-3), pages 617-653, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export elasticity; competitive Devaluation; currency wars; panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • P33 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:56727. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.