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Le piège de la déflation : Perspectives 2014-2015

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  • Xavier Timbeau

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

La reprise en zone euro ne se produit pas. La croissance mondiale reste également à la peine, sous le coup de la faiblesse de la zone euro et en l'absence de moteur vigoureux. L'année 2015 serait marquée par une légère accélération, mais là encore à un rythme de croissance trop faible dans la plupart des pays de la zone euro pour induire une baisse significative du chômage. Pourtant, à la suite des interventions de la Banque centrale, de la mise en place d'un mécanisme européen de résolution des crises bancaires, de la modération dans la consolidation budgétaire ou même de la baisse de l'euro par rapport au dollar intervenue au cours de l'année 2014, une sortie de crise des dettes souveraines en zone euro était espérée. La dynamique de l'impact des plans de consolidation budgétaire peut expliquer en partie que ceux-ci jouent encore négativement. Mais le rôle joué par les taux d'intérêts réels anticipés par les agents privés (entreprises et ménages) indique que la dynamique de déflation est centrale. La résolution de la crise des dettes souveraines n'a pas produit la baisse attendue des taux pratiqués aux agents privés. Le ralentissement de l'inflation a conduit à une hausse des taux réels (en Espagne et en Italie principalement). Un passage, même temporaire, par la déflation accentuera le poids de la dette publique et appellera de nouvelles consolidations budgétaires. Un « désancrage » des anticipations refermerait sûrement le piège de la déflation. Les ajustements en cours sur les salaires et coûts unitaires sont un facteur supplémentaire contribuant à cette spirale déflationniste. Les pays en crise cherchent dans la compétitivité un substitut à une demande intérieure atone. Mais les gains des uns réduisent ceux attendus par les autres et maintiennent la pression à la baisse sur les salaires nominaux ou obligent aux dévaluations fiscales. L'ajustement interne de la zone euro passera par les coûts relatifs, mais la sortie de crise suppose une politique monétaire vigoureuse, une fragmentation réduite du financement de la zone euro mais aussi un stimulus de la demande que la baisse de l'euro ne suffira pas à produire.

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  • Xavier Timbeau, 2014. "Le piège de la déflation : Perspectives 2014-2015," Post-Print hal-03460404, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03460404
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03460404
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    References listed on IDEAS

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