IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/1998-149.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Time Series Analysis of Export Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Claudio Montenegro
  • Mr. Abdelhak S Senhadji

Abstract

The paper estimates export demand elasticities for a large number of developing and developed countries, using time-series techniques that account for the nonstationarity in the data. The average long-run price and income elasticities are found to be approximately -1 and 1.5, respectively. Thus, exports do react to both the trade partners’ income and to relative prices. Africa faces the lowest income elasticities for its exports, while Asia has both the highest income and price elasticities. The price and income elasticity estimates have good statistical properties.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Claudio Montenegro & Mr. Abdelhak S Senhadji, 1998. "Time Series Analysis of Export Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Working Papers 1998/149, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1998/149
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=2759
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lewis, W Arthur, 1980. "The Slowing Down of the Engine of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(4), pages 555-564, September.
    2. Peter C. B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1991. "Estimating Long-run Economic Equilibria," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 407-436.
    3. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Efficient estimation and testing of cointegrating vectors in the presence of deterministic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 87-121.
    4. Riedel, James, 1984. "Trade as the Engine of Growth in Developing Countries, Revisited," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(373), pages 56-73, March.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1995. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 290-312, June.
    6. Rose, Andrew K., 1990. "Exchange rates and the trade balance : Some evidence from developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 271-275, November.
    7. Mr. Mohsin S. Khan & Mr. Morris Goldstein, 1982. "Effects of Slowdown in Industrial Countries on Growth in Non-Oil Developing Countries," IMF Occasional Papers 1982/005, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Abdelhak Senhadji, 1998. "Time-Series Estimation of Structural Import Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(2), pages 236-268, June.
    9. Abdelhak S. Senhadji & Claudio E. Montenegro, 1999. "Time Series Analysis of Export Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 1-2.
    10. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    11. Marquez, Jaime & McNeilly, Caryl, 1988. "Income and Price Elasticities for Exports of Developing Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(2), pages 306-314, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abdelhak Senhadji, 1998. "Time-Series Estimation of Structural Import Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(2), pages 236-268, June.
    2. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Go, Delfin S. & Hongyi Li, 1999. "Quantifying the fiscal effects of trade reform," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2162, The World Bank.
    3. Günçavdı, Öner & Suna Kayam, Saime, 2017. "Unravelling the structure of Turkish exports: Impediments and policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 307-323.
    4. Konstantinos Chisiridis & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2017. "The Relationship Between Greek Exports and Foreign Regional Income," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 111, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    5. Bernardina Algieri, 2011. "Modelling export equations using an unobserved component model: the case of the Euro Area and its competitors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 593-637, December.
    6. Sanjesh Kumar, 2009. "Estimating Export Equations for Developing Countries," The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(2), pages 17-28, March.
    7. Bernardina Algieri, 2004. "Price and Income Elasticities of Russian Exports," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 1(2), pages 175-193, December.
    8. Ariel A. Barraud & Author-Name: Ariel A. Barraud, 2011. "Exploring trade flows between MERCOSUR and the EU: what does an export demand function tell us?," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 2, pages 1-1, December.
    9. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan & Biman Chand Prasad, 2008. "Forecasting Fiji's exports and imports, 2003‐2020," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 35(12), pages 1005-1016, October.
    10. Haoatai, Heinarii & Monypenny, Richard, 2011. "Export demand for Tahitian black pearls," Australasian Agribusiness Review, University of Melbourne, Department of Agriculture and Food Systems, vol. 19, pages 1-16.
    11. Utku Utkulu & Dilek Seymen, 2004. "Trade and Competitiveness Between Turkey and the EU: Time Series Evidence," Working Papers 2004/8, Turkish Economic Association, revised Mar 2004.
    12. Konstantinos Chisiridis & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2018. "The Relationship Between Greek Exports and Foreign Income," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 64(1), pages 99-114.
    13. Wani, Mr. Nassir Ul Haq & Dhami, Dr. Jasdeep Kaur & Sidana, Dr. Neeru, 2016. "India's trade linkage with BRCS: An econometric study," MPRA Paper 81949, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Mar 2017.
    14. Tang, Tuck Cheong, 2003. "An empirical analysis of China's aggregate import demand function," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 142-163.
    15. Montobbio, Fabio & Rampa, Francesco, 2005. "The impact of technology and structural change on export performance in nine developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 527-547, April.
    16. Mohsen Bahmani & Hanafiah Harvey & Scott W. Hegerty, 2013. "Empirical tests of the Marshall-Lerner condition: a literature review," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 40(3), pages 411-443, May.
    17. Catao, Luis & Falcetti, Elisabetta, 2002. "Determinants of Argentina’s External Trade," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 5(01), pages 1-39, May.
    18. Palazzo, Gabriel & Rapetti, Martín, 2023. "From macro to micro and macro back: Macroeconomic trade elasticities in a developing economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 223-252.
    19. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Utku UTKULU & Dilek SEYMEN & Aydin ARI, 2010. "Export Supply and Trade Reform: The Turkish Evidence," EcoMod2004 330600144, EcoMod.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1998/149. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.