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Can Reform Waves Turn the Tide? Some Case Studies Using the Synthetic Control Method

Author

Listed:
  • Bibek Adhikari
  • Mr. Romain A Duval
  • Bingjie Hu
  • Mr. Prakash Loungani

Abstract

A number of advanced economies carried out a sequence of extensive reforms of their labor and product markets in the 1990s and early 2000s. Using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM), this paper implements six case studies of well-known waves of reforms, those of New Zealand, Australia, Denmark, Ireland and Netherlands in the 1990s, and the labor market reforms in Germany in the early 2000s. In four of the six cases, GDP per capita was higher than in the control group as a result of the reforms. No difference between the treated country and its synthetic counterpart could be found in the cases of Denmark and New Zealand, which in the latter case may have partly reflected the implementation of reforms under particularly weak macroeconomic conditions. Overall, also factoring in the limitations of the SCM in this context, the results are suggestive of a positive but heterogenous effect of reform waves on GDP per capita.

Suggested Citation

  • Bibek Adhikari & Mr. Romain A Duval & Bingjie Hu & Mr. Prakash Loungani, 2016. "Can Reform Waves Turn the Tide? Some Case Studies Using the Synthetic Control Method," IMF Working Papers 2016/171, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/171
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; labor market; real GDP; product market; fiscal policy; structural reforms; synthetic control method; liberalization; labor and productivity market reforms; growth; heads of state government; State life insurance insurance company; industrial relations; government's share; predictive power; reform package; donor country; untreated country; income support; firm level; life insurance insurance company; Labor market reforms; Competition; Active labor market policies; Unemployment; Europe; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth

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