IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tcb/wpaper/1526.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating Income and Price Elasticity of Turkish Exports with Heterogeneous Panel Time-Series Methods

Author

Listed:
  • Ihsan Bozok
  • Bahar Sen Dogan
  • Caglar Yunculer

Abstract

In this paper, we employ panel time-series methods Dynamic OLS, Mean Group and Common Correlated Effects Mean Group to estimate the long-run price and income elasticities of Turkish exports to country groups categorized by geographical regions (EU27, other European countries, Asia, Middle East and North Africa (MENA)) and development levels (developed and developing). In doing so, we use bilateral trade data of Turkey with 67 countries over the period 2005Q1-2013Q4. We find that price and income elasticities vary across country groups. Income elasticity estimates are statistically significant in every country group classification and range between 1.82 and 3.35. Exports to the EU27, other European and the developed countries have higher income responsiveness. On the other hand, price elasticity ranges between -1.56 and -0.27 and is found statistically significant only in exports to the EU27, the MENA and the developing countries. Empirical results imply that region-specific measures have to be taken in trade policy design. In addition, policies based on real exchange rate depreciation would have fewer roles in boosting exports, whereas sustainable growth in trading partners is a more crucial factor to achieve sustainable growth in Turkish exports.

Suggested Citation

  • Ihsan Bozok & Bahar Sen Dogan & Caglar Yunculer, 2015. "Estimating Income and Price Elasticity of Turkish Exports with Heterogeneous Panel Time-Series Methods," Working Papers 1526, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1526
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Research/Working+Paperss/2015/15-26
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Morris Goldstein & Mohsin S. Khan, 2017. "Income and Price Effects in Foreign Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 1, pages 3-81, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    3. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
    4. Leamer, Edward E. & Levinsohn, James, 1995. "International trade theory: The evidence," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 26, pages 1339-1394, Elsevier.
    5. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    6. Mohsen Bahmani-oskooee & Charikleia Economidou, 2005. "How stable is the demand for money in Greece?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 461-472.
    7. Anne-Célia Disdier & Keith Head, 2008. "The Puzzling Persistence of the Distance Effect on Bilateral Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(1), pages 37-48, February.
    8. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Vanessa Smith, L. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2013. "Panel unit root tests in the presence of a multifactor error structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 94-115.
    9. Morris Goldstein & Mohsin S. Khan, 2017. "The Supply and Demand for Exports: A Simultaneous Approach," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 2, pages 83-104, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    11. Christophe Hurlin & Valérie Mignon, 2007. "Second Generation Panel Unit Root Tests," Working Papers halshs-00159842, HAL.
    12. Kaminski, Bartlomiej & Ng, Francis, 2006. "Turkey's evolving trade integration into Pan-European markets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3908, The World Bank.
    13. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2011. "Econometrics For Grumblers: A New Look At The Literature On Cross‐Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 109-155, February.
    14. Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
    15. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    16. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    17. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1986. "Determinants of international trade flows : The Case of Developing Countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 107-123.
    18. Mr. Jarkko Turunen & Mr. Richard T. Harmsen & Mr. Tamim Bayoumi, 2011. "Euro Area Export Performance and Competitiveness," IMF Working Papers 2011/140, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Vogelsang, Timothy J. & Wagner, Martin, 2014. "Integrated modified OLS estimation and fixed-b inference for cointegrating regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(2), pages 741-760.
    20. Olcay Yucel Culha & M. Koray Kalafatcilar, 2014. "Turkiye’de Ihracatin Gelir ve Fiyat Esnekliklerine Bir Bakis : Bolgesel Farkliliklarin Onemi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1405, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    21. Damiaan Persyn & Joakim Westerlund, 2008. "Error-correction–based cointegration tests for panel data," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 8(2), pages 232-241, June.
    22. Berument, M. Hakan & Dincer, N. Nergiz & Mustafaoglu, Zafer, 2014. "External income shocks and Turkish exports: A sectoral analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 476-484.
    23. Luis M. Cubeddu & Alexander Culiuc & Ghada Fayad & Yuan Gao & Kalpana Kochhar & Annette J Kyobe & Ceyda Oner & Roberto Perrelli & Sarah Sanya & Evridiki Tsounta & Zhongxia Zhang, 2014. "Emerging Markets in Transition; Growth Prospects and Challenges," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 14/6, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Jaime Marquez, 2005. "The Aggregate Of Elasticities Or The Elasticity Of The Aggregates: U.S. Trade In Services," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 142, Society for Computational Economics.
    25. Markus Eberhardt, 2012. "Estimating panel time-series models with heterogeneous slopes," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 12(1), pages 61-71, March.
    26. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Goswami, Gour Gobinda, 2004. "Exchange rate sensitivity of Japan's bilateral trade flows," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, January.
    27. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Ratha, Artatrana, 2008. "Exchange rate sensitivity of US bilateral trade flows," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 129-141, June.
    28. Evren Erdogan Cosar, 2002. "Price and Income Elasticities of Turkish Export Demand : A Panel Data Application," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 2(2), pages 19-53.
    29. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Dynamic panel estimation and homogeneity testing under cross section dependence *," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 217-259, June.
    30. Ayla Ogus & Niloufer Sohrabji, 2009. "Elasticities of Turkish Exports and Imports," Working Papers 0906, Izmir University of Economics.
    31. Francesco Moscone & Elisa Tosetti, 2009. "A Review And Comparison Of Tests Of Cross‐Section Independence In Panels," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 528-561, July.
    32. Donatella Baiardi & Carluccio Bianchi & Eleonora Lorenzini, 2014. "The price and income elasticities of the top clothing exporters: Evidence from a panel data analysis," DEM Working Papers Series 074, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    33. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    34. Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-125, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Plamen K Iossifov & Xuan Fei, 2019. "Real Effective Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Adjustment: The Case of Turkey," IMF Working Papers 2019/131, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Olcay Yucel Culha & Mustafa Utku Ozmen & Erdal Yilmaz, 2015. "Petrol Fiyatlarinin Ihracat Uzerindeki Etkisi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1510, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    3. Nazlı Karamollaoğlu & Cihan Yalçin, 2020. "Exports, real exchange rates and dollarization: empirical evidence from Turkish manufacturing firms," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(5), pages 2527-2557, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Skare, Marinko & Ozturk, Ilhan & Porada-Rochoń, Małgorzata & Stjepanovic, Sasa, 2024. "Energy as the new frontier: Dynamic panel data analysis revealing energy's transformative role in economic growth and technological progress," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    2. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2008. "Modeling Technology and Technological Change in Manufacturing: How do Countries Differ?," CSAE Working Paper Series 2008-12, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    3. Carvelli, Gianni, 2024. "The dynamic effects of public investments on private capital formation: Modelling a heterogeneous asymmetric cointegration with unobserved global factors," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    4. Gautam, Tej K. & Paudel, Krishna P., 2018. "The demand for natural gas in the Northeastern United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 890-898.
    5. Chakraborty, Saptorshee Kanto & Mazzanti, Massimiliano, 2021. "Renewable electricity and economic growth relationship in the long run: Panel data econometric evidence from the OECD," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 330-341.
    6. Jian Xue & Zeeshan Rasool & Raima Nazar & Ahmad Imran Khan & Shaukat Hussain Bhatti & Sajid Ali, 2021. "Revisiting Natural Resources—Globalization-Environmental Quality Nexus: Fresh Insights from South Asian Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-19, April.
    7. Tiba, Sofien & Belaid, Fateh, 2020. "The pollution concern in the era of globalization: Do the contribution of foreign direct investment and trade openness matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    8. Acar, Pinar & Berk, Istemi, 2022. "Power infrastructure quality and industrial performance: A panel data analysis on OECD manufacturing sectors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PC).
    9. Markus Eberhardt, 2011. "Panel time-series modeling: New tools for analyzing xt data," United Kingdom Stata Users' Group Meetings 2011 22, Stata Users Group.
    10. Mehmet Balcilar & Sahar Aghazadeh & George N Ike, 2021. "Modelling the employment, income and price elasticities of outbound tourism demand in OECD countries," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(5), pages 971-990, August.
    11. Elisabet Rodriguez Llorian & Janelle Mann, 2022. "Exploring the technology–healthcare expenditure nexus: a panel error correction approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(6), pages 3061-3086, June.
    12. Peñasco, Cristina & del Río, Pablo & Romero-Jordán, Desiderio, 2017. "Gas and electricity demand in Spanish manufacturing industries: An analysis using homogeneous and heterogeneous estimators," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 45-60.
    13. Anil Shrestha & Makoto Kakinaka, 2022. "Remittance Inflows and Energy Transition of the Residential Sector in Developing Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-19, August.
    14. Gianni Carvelli, 2023. "The long-run effects of government expenditure on private investments: a panel CS-ARDL approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(3), pages 620-645, September.
    15. Dina Azhgaliyeva, 2013. "What Makes Oil Revenue Funds Effective," International Conference on Energy, Regional Integration and Socio-economic Development 6023, EcoMod.
    16. Lewis, John & De Schryder, Selien, 2015. "Export dynamics since the Great Trade Collapse: a cross-country analysis," Bank of England working papers 535, Bank of England.
    17. Belaïd, Fateh & Zrelli, Maha Harbaoui, 2019. "Renewable and non-renewable electricity consumption, environmental degradation and economic development: Evidence from Mediterranean countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    18. Silvia Fedeli, 2015. "The Impact of GDP on Health Care Expenditure: The Case of Italy (1982–2009)," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 122(2), pages 347-370, June.
    19. Chakraborty, Saptorshee Kanto & Mazzanti, Massimiliano, 2020. "Energy intensity and green energy innovation: Checking heterogeneous country effects in the OECD," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 328-343.
    20. Eibinger, Tobias & Deixelberger, Beate & Manner, Hans, 2024. "Panel data in environmental economics: Econometric issues and applications to IPAT models," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Panel data; Time-Series; Elasticity; Cross-Dependence; Mean group estimation; Common correlated effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1526. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sermet Pekin or Ilker Cakar or the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tcmgvtr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.