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Modelling Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture

Author

Listed:
  • Ada Ignaciuk

    (OECD)

  • Daniel Mason-D'Croz

    (International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI))

Abstract

This paper investigates how climate change can affect agricultural production and proposes some adaptation measures that could be undertaken to mitigate the negative effects of climate change while enhancing the positive ones. The paper stresses the importance of planned adaptation measures and highlights possible strategies for reducing risk and improving resilience. To quantify the possible effects of climate change and the effects of adaptation measures this study uses the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT). The analysis first explores the potential effects of climate change on yields and prices. It then goes on to analyse the potential impacts of two distinctive sets of adaptation strategies on yields, prices, and food security, namely: i) research and development (to develop new crop varieties that are better suited to changed climate conditions) and ii) changes in irrigation technology. Last, the analysis in this paper estimates the public and private investment needs in research and development (R&D) for developing new crop varieties, and further develops estimates of the cost of improving irrigation technologies in OECD countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ada Ignaciuk & Daniel Mason-D'Croz, 2014. "Modelling Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 70, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:agraaa:70-en
    DOI: 10.1787/5jxrclljnbxq-en
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pfeiffer, Lisa & Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia, 2014. "Does efficient irrigation technology lead to reduced groundwater extraction? Empirical evidence," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 189-208.
    2. Haddad, Lawrence James & Smith, Lisa C., 2000. "Explaining child malnutrition in developing countries: a cross-country analysis," Research reports 111, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Hertel, Thomas & Burke, Marshall & Lobell, David, 2010. "The Poverty Implications of Climate-Induced Crop Yield Changes by 2030," GTAP Working Papers 3196, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    4. Hertel, Thomas & Burke, Marshall & Lobell, David, 2010. "The Poverty Implications of Climate-Induced Crop Yield Changes by 2030," GTAP Working Papers 3196, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    5. Salvatore Di Falco & Marcella Veronesi, 2013. "How Can African Agriculture Adapt to Climate Change? A Counterfactual Analysis from Ethiopia," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 89(4), pages 743-766.
    6. World Bank, 2010. "Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Synthesis Report," World Bank Publications - Reports 12750, The World Bank Group.
    7. Sergey Paltsev, 2012. "Implications of Alternative Mitigation Policies on World Prices for Fossil Fuels and Agricultural Products," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2012-065, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nin-Pratt, Alejandro & Beveridge, Malcolm C. M. & Sulser, Timothy B. & Marwaha, Nisha & Stanley, Michele & Grisenthwaite, Robert & Phillips, Michael J., 2022. "Cattle, seaweed, and global greenhouse gas emissions," IFPRI discussion papers 2111, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Cenacchi, Nicola & Lim, Youngah & Sulser, Timothy B. & Islam, Shahnila & Mason-D'Croz, Daniel & Robertson, Richard D. & Kim, Chang-Gil & Wiebe, Keith D., 2016. "Climate change, agriculture, and adaptation in the Republic of Korea to 2050: An integrated assessment," IFPRI discussion papers 1586, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Bartova, Lubica & Konyova, Veronika, 2015. "Regional Spatial Changes in the Slovak Agriculture," 150th Seminar, October 22-23, 2015, Edinburgh, Scotland 228857, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Rob Dellink & Hyunjeong Hwang & Elisa Lanzi & Jean Chateau, 2017. "International trade consequences of climate change," OECD Trade and Environment Working Papers 2017/1, OECD Publishing.
    5. Mason-D'Croz, Daniel & Sulser, Timothy B. & Wiebe, Keith & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Lowder, Sarah K. & Nin-Pratt, Alejandro & Willenbockel, Dirk & Robinson, Sherman & Zhu, Tingju & Cenacchi, Nicola & Duns, 2019. "Agricultural investments and hunger in Africa modeling potential contributions to SDG2 – Zero Hunger," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 38-53.
    6. Kozicka, Marta & Gotor, Elisabetta & Ocimati, Walter & de Jager, Tamar & Kikulwe, Enoch & Groot, Jeroen C.J., 2020. "Responding to future regime shifts with agrobiodiversity: A multi-level perspective on small-scale farming in Uganda," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    7. Rob Dellink & Elisa Lanzi & Jean Chateau, 2019. "The Sectoral and Regional Economic Consequences of Climate Change to 2060," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(2), pages 309-363, February.
    8. repec:zib:zbppsc:v:1:y:2021:i:1:p:8-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Fernández, Francisco J. & Blanco, Maria, 2015. "Modelling the economic impacts of climate change on global and European agriculture: Review of economic structural approaches," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 9, pages 1-53.
    10. Robinson, Sherman & Mason-D’Croz, Daniel & Islam, Shahnila & Sulser, Timothy B. & Robertson, Richard D. & Zhu, Tingju & Gueneau, Arthur & Pitois, Gauthier & Rosegrant, Mark W., 2015. "The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model description for version 3," IFPRI discussion papers 1483, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    11. Santiago Guerrero & Ben Henderson & Hugo Valin & Charlotte Janssens & Petr Havlik & Amanda Palazzo, 2022. "The impacts of agricultural trade and support policy reform on climate change adaptation and environmental performance: A model-based analysis," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 180, OECD Publishing.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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