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Responding to future regime shifts with agrobiodiversity: A multi-level perspective on small-scale farming in Uganda

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  • Kozicka, Marta
  • Gotor, Elisabetta
  • Ocimati, Walter
  • de Jager, Tamar
  • Kikulwe, Enoch
  • Groot, Jeroen C.J.

Abstract

We analyse the impact of two large-scale regime shifts caused by disease incidence or climate change, and associated crop productivity and price changes, on banana-based smallholders in Uganda. We evaluate these farmers' vulnerability and assess the potential of using increased crop diversity to improve their resilience. We further explore trade-offs and synergies between environmental, economic and nutritional outcomes faced by the farmers in their decision making when a regime shift occurs. We simulate the large-scale scenarios with the IMPACT model and use the results obtained to assess their effect at the local level using the bio-economic farm-household model, FarmDESIGN.

Suggested Citation

  • Kozicka, Marta & Gotor, Elisabetta & Ocimati, Walter & de Jager, Tamar & Kikulwe, Enoch & Groot, Jeroen C.J., 2020. "Responding to future regime shifts with agrobiodiversity: A multi-level perspective on small-scale farming in Uganda," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:183:y:2020:i:c:s0308521x19309618
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2020.102864
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Donato, Romano & Carraro, Alessandro, 2015. "Modelling Acreage, Production and Yield Supply Response to Domestic Price Volatility," 2015 Fourth Congress, June 11-12, 2015, Ancona, Italy 207278, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    2. Declan Butler, 2013. "Fungus threatens top banana," Nature, Nature, vol. 504(7479), pages 195-196, December.
    3. Kupers, Roland & Wilkinson, Angela, 2014. "The Essence of Scenarios," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9789089645944.
    4. Ada Ignaciuk & Daniel Mason-D'Croz, 2014. "Modelling Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 70, OECD Publishing.
    5. Alessandro De Pinto & Keith Wiebe & Pablo Pacheco, 2017. "Help bigger palm oil yields to save land," Nature, Nature, vol. 544(7651), pages 416-416, April.
    6. von Braun, Joachim & Tadesse, Getaw, 2012. "Global Food Price Volatility and Spikes: An Overview of Costs, Causes, and Solutions," Discussion Papers 120021, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
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    Cited by:

    1. Brosseau, Antoine & Saito, Kazuki & van Oort, Pepijn A.J. & Diagne, Mandiaye & Valbuena, Diego & Groot, Jeroen C.J., 2021. "Exploring opportunities for diversification of smallholders' rice-based farming systems in the Senegal River Valley," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    2. Kozicka, Marta & Enahoro, Dolapo & Groot, Jeroen C.J. & Rich, Karl M. & Gotor, Elisabetta, 2021. "The Future of Sustainable Development and Agrobiodiversity in Tanzania and Uganda," SocArXiv d2rgx_v1, Center for Open Science.
    3. Sibbir Ahmad & Melinda Smale & Veronique Theriault & Eugenie Maiga, 2023. "Input subsidies and crop diversity on family farms in Burkina Faso," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 237-254, February.

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