IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ver/wpaper/14-2012.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How Can African Agriculture Adapt to Climate Change? A Counterfactual Analysis from Ethiopia

Author

Listed:
  • Marcella Veronesi

    (Department of Economics (University of Verona))

  • Salvatore Di Falco

    (London School of Economics and Political Science)

Abstract

We analyze the impact of different adaptation strategies on crop net revenues in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. We estimate a multinomial endogenous switching regression model of climate change adaptation and crop net revenues and implement a counterfactual analysis. Households data are combined with spatial climate data. We find that adaptation to climate change based upon a portfolio of strategies significantly increases farm net revenues. Changing crop varieties has a positive and significant impact on net revenues when is coupled with water conservation strategies or soil conservation strategies but not when implemented in isolation.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcella Veronesi & Salvatore Di Falco, 2012. "How Can African Agriculture Adapt to Climate Change? A Counterfactual Analysis from Ethiopia," Working Papers 14/2012, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ver:wpaper:14/2012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dse.univr.it/home/workingpapers/wp2012n14.pdf
    File Function: Revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gordon B. Dahl, 2002. "Mobility and the Return to Education: Testing a Roy Model with Multiple Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(6), pages 2367-2420, November.
    2. François Bourguignon & Martin Fournier & Marc Gurgand, 2007. "Selection Bias Corrections Based On The Multinomial Logit Model: Monte Carlo Comparisons," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 174-205, February.
    3. Robert Mendelsohn & Ariel Dinar, 2003. "Climate, Water, and Agriculture," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 79(3), pages 328-341.
    4. Bekele, Wagayehu & Drake, Lars, 2003. "Soil and water conservation decision behavior of subsistence farmers in the Eastern Highlands of Ethiopia: a case study of the Hunde-Lafto area," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 437-451, October.
    5. Seo S. Niggol & Mendelsohn Robert & Dinar Ariel & Kurukulasuriya Pradeep, 2009. "Adapting to Climate Change Mosaically: An Analysis of African Livestock Management by Agro-Ecological Zones," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-37, March.
    6. Temesgen Tadesse Deressa & Rashid M. Hassan, 2009. "Economic Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in Ethiopia: Evidence from Cross-section Measures," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 18(4), pages 529-554, August.
    7. Shiferaw, Bekele & Holden, Stein T., 1998. "Resource degradation and adoption of land conservation technologies in the Ethiopian Highlands: A case study in Andit Tid, North Shewa," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 233-247, May.
    8. S. Niggol Seo, 2010. "A Microeconometric Analysis of Adapting Portfolios to Climate Change: Adoption of Agricultural Systems in Latin America," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 32(3), pages 489-514.
    9. Gebremedhin, Berhanu & Swinton, Scott M., 2003. "Investment in soil conservation in northern Ethiopia: the role of land tenure security and public programs," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 69-84, July.
    10. Sjaastad, Espen & Bromley, Daniel W., 1997. "Indigenous land rights in sub-Saharan Africa: Appropriation, security and investment demand," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 549-562, January.
    11. Udry, Christopher, 1996. "Gender, Agricultural Production, and the Theory of the Household," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 1010-1046, October.
    12. Deressa, Temesgen & Hassan, R. M. & Alemu, Tekie & Yesuf, Mahmud & Ringler, Claudia, 2008. "Analyzing the determinants of farmers' choice of adaptation methods and perceptions of climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia:," IFPRI discussion papers 798, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    13. Seo, S. Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2008. "An analysis of crop choice: Adapting to climate change in South American farms," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 109-116, August.
    14. Salvatore Di Falco & Marcella Veronesi & Mahmud Yesuf, 2011. "Does Adaptation to Climate Change Provide Food Security? A Micro-Perspective from Ethiopia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(3), pages 825-842.
    15. Mundlak, Yair, 1978. "On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 69-85, January.
    16. Jinxia Wang & Robert Mendelsohn & Ariel Dinar & Jikun Huang, 2010. "How Chinese Farmers Change Crop Choice To Adapt To Climate Change," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(03), pages 167-185.
    17. Alemu Mekonnen, 2009. "Tenure Security, Resource Endowments, and Tree Growing: Evidence from the Amhara Region of Ethiopia," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 85(2), pages 292-307.
    18. Gordon Dahl, 1997. "Mobility and the Returns to Education: Testing A Roy Model With Multiple Markets," Working Papers 760, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    19. William R. Cline, 2007. "Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4037, January.
    20. Stein Holden & Hailu Yohannes, 2002. "Land Redistribution, Tenure Insecurity, and Intensity of Production: A Study of Farm Households in Southern Ethiopia," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 78(4), pages 573-590.
    21. Besley, Timothy, 1995. "Property Rights and Investment Incentives: Theory and Evidence from Ghana," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(5), pages 903-937, October.
    22. Ai, Chunrong & Norton, Edward C., 2003. "Interaction terms in logit and probit models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 123-129, July.
    23. Bogale, Ayalneh & Taeb, Mohammed & Endo, Mitsugi, 2006. "Land ownership and conflicts over the use of resources: Implication for household vulnerability in eastern Ethiopia," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 134-145, June.
    24. Oecd, 2009. "Climate Change and Africa," OECD Journal: General Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 2009(1), pages 5-35.
    25. World Bank, 2006. "Ethiopia : Managing Water Resources to Maximize Sustainable Growth," World Bank Publications - Reports 8170, The World Bank Group.
    26. Tesfaye, Abonesh & Brouwer, Roy, 2012. "Testing participation constraints in contract design for sustainable soil conservation in Ethiopia," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 168-178.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Salvatore Di Falco & Marcella Veronesi, 2014. "Managing Environmental Risk in Presence of Climate Change: The Role of Adaptation in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 57(4), pages 553-577, April.
    2. Salvatore Falco & Marcella Veronesi, 2018. "Managing Environmental Risk in Presence of Climate Change: The Role of Adaptation in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia," Natural Resource Management and Policy, in: Leslie Lipper & Nancy McCarthy & David Zilberman & Solomon Asfaw & Giacomo Branca (ed.), Climate Smart Agriculture, pages 497-526, Springer.
    3. Hailemariam Teklewold & Alemu Mekonnen & Gunnar Kohlin & Salvatore Di Falco, 2017. "Does Adoption Of Multiple Climate-Smart Practices Improve Farmers’ Climate Resilience? Empirical Evidence From The Nile Basin Of Ethiopia," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 1-30, February.
    4. Jolejole-Foreman, Maria Christina & Baylis, Katherine R. & Lipper, Leslie, 2012. "Land Degradation’s Implications on Agricultural Value of Production in Ethiopia: A look inside the bowl," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126251, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Fenske, James, 2011. "Land tenure and investment incentives: Evidence from West Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 137-156, July.
    6. Zhou, Li & Turvey, Calum G., 2014. "Climate change, adaptation and China's grain production," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 72-89.
    7. Zikhali, Precious, 2008. "Tenure Security and Investments: Micro-evidence from Zimbabwe’s Fast Track Land Reform Programme," Working Papers in Economics 321, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    8. Byela Tibesigwa & Martine Visser & Jane Turpie, 2017. "Climate change and South Africa’s commercial farms: an assessment of impacts on specialised horticulture, crop, livestock and mixed farming systems," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 607-636, April.
    9. Tesfaye C. Cholo & Luuk Fleskens & Diana Sietz & Jack Peerlings, 2018. "Is Land Fragmentation Facilitating or Obstructing Adoption of Climate Adaptation Measures in Ethiopia?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-14, June.
    10. Aslihan Arslan & Kristin Floress & Christine Lamanna & Leslie Lipper & Solomon Asfaw & Todd Rosenstock, 2020. "IFAD RESEARCH SERIES 63 - The adoption of improved agricultural technologies - A meta-analysis for Africa," IFAD Research Series 304758, International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD).
    11. Hagos, Hosaena Ghebru, 2012. "Tenure (in)security and agricultural investment of smallholder farmers in Mozambique:," MSSP working papers 5, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    12. Precious Zikhali, 2010. "Fast Track Land Reform Programme, tenure security and investments in soil conservation: Micro‐evidence from Mazowe District in Zimbabwe," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 124-139, May.
    13. Deininger, Klaus & Jin, Songqing, 2006. "Tenure security and land-related investment: Evidence from Ethiopia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1245-1277, July.
    14. Mequaninte, Teferi & Birner, Regina & Mueller, Ulrike, 2015. "Adoption of Land Management Practices in Ethiopia: Which Network Types," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212631, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Di Falco, Salvatore & Bulte, Erwin, 2013. "The Impact of Kinship Networks on the Adoption of Risk-Mitigating Strategies in Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 100-110.
    16. Hoang Huu Dinh & Shyam Basnet & Justus Wesseler, 2023. "Impact of Land Tenure Security Perception on Tree Planting Investment in Vietnam," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-23, February.
    17. Muna Shifa & Murray Leibbrandt & Martin Wittenberg, 2015. "Does tenure insecurity explain the variations in land-related investment decisions in rural Ethiopia?," SALDRU Working Papers 150, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    18. Dilshad Ahmad & Mohammad Afzal & Abdur Rauf, 2021. "Farmers’ adaptation decisions to landslides and flash floods in the mountainous region of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa of Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(6), pages 8573-8600, June.
    19. Cao, Yueming & Bai, Yunli & Zhang, Linxiu, 2020. "The impact of farmland property rights security on the farmland investment in rural China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    20. Tesfaye, Abonesh & Brouwer, Roy, 2012. "Testing participation constraints in contract design for sustainable soil conservation in Ethiopia," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 168-178.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    adaptation; climate change; endogenous switching; Ethiopia; net revenues; strategies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ver:wpaper:14/2012. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael Reiter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/isverit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.