IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/31572.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Skills, Majors, and Jobs: Does Higher Education Respond?

Author

Listed:
  • Johnathan G. Conzelmann
  • Steven W. Hemelt
  • Brad Hershbein
  • Shawn M. Martin
  • Andrew Simon
  • Kevin M. Stange

Abstract

How do college students and postsecondary institutions react to changes in skill demand in the U.S. labor market? We quantify the magnitude and nature of response in the 4-year sector using a new measure of labor demand at the institution-major level that combines online job ads with geographic locations of alumni from a professional networking platform. Within a shift-share setup, we find that the 4-year sector responds. We estimate elasticities for undergraduate degrees and credits centered around 1.3, generally increasing with time horizon. Changes in non-tenure-track faculty allocations and the credits they teach partially mediate this overall response. We provide further evidence that the magnitude of the overall response depends on both student demand and institutional supply-side constraints. Our findings illuminate the nature of educational production in higher education and suggest that policy efforts that aim to align human capital investment with labor demand may struggle to achieve such goals if they target only one side of the market.

Suggested Citation

  • Johnathan G. Conzelmann & Steven W. Hemelt & Brad Hershbein & Shawn M. Martin & Andrew Simon & Kevin M. Stange, 2023. "Skills, Majors, and Jobs: Does Higher Education Respond?," NBER Working Papers 31572, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31572
    Note: ED LS
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w31572.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    2. Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Isaac Sorkin & Henry Swift, 2020. "Bartik Instruments: What, When, Why, and How," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(8), pages 2586-2624, August.
    3. Erica Blom & Brian C. Cadena & Benjamin J. Keys, 2021. "Investment over the Business Cycle: Insights from College Major Choice," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(4), pages 1043-1082.
    4. William R. Johnson & Sarah Turner, 2009. "Faculty without Students: Resource Allocation in Higher Education," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 169-189, Spring.
    5. Bound, John & Brown, Charles & Mathiowetz, Nancy, 2001. "Measurement error in survey data," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 59, pages 3705-3843, Elsevier.
    6. David Autor & Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz, 2020. "Extending the Race between Education and Technology," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 347-351, May.
    7. Richard B. Freeman, 1976. "A Cobweb Model of the Supply and Starting Salary of New Engineers," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 29(2), pages 236-248, January.
    8. Peter Q. Blair & David J. Deming, 2020. "Structural Increases in Skill Demand after the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 26680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. David J. Deming & Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz & Noam Yuchtman, 2015. "Can Online Learning Bend the Higher Education Cost Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 496-501, May.
    10. Gilpin, Gregory A. & Saunders, Joseph & Stoddard, Christiana, 2015. "Why has for-profit colleges’ share of higher education expanded so rapidly? Estimating the responsiveness to labor market changes," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 53-63.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lipowski, Cäcilia & Salomons, Anna & Zierahn-Weilage, Ulrich, 2024. "Expertise at work: New technologies, new skills, and worker impacts," ZEW Discussion Papers 24-044, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    2. Juan Esteban Carranza & María Marta Ferreyra & Ana Maria Gazmuri, 2023. "The Dynamic Market for Short-Cycle Higher Education Programs," Borradores de Economia 1265, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Autor & Caroline Chin & Anna Salomons & Bryan Seegmiller, 2024. "New Frontiers: The Origins and Content of New Work, 1940–2018," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(3), pages 1399-1465.
    2. Dora Gicheva, 2020. "Occupational Social Value and Returns to Long Hours," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 87(347), pages 682-712, July.
    3. Blanas, Sotiris & Oikonomou, Rigas, 2023. "COVID-induced economic uncertainty, tasks and occupational demand," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    4. Russell Weinstein, 2022. "Local Labor Markets and Human Capital Investments," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(5), pages 1498-1525.
    5. Lee, Jongkwan & Shim, Myungkyu & Yang, Hee-Seung, 2022. "The rise of low-skill service employment: The role of dual-earner households," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 255-273.
    6. Juan Esteban Carranza & María Marta Ferreyra & Ana Maria Gazmuri, 2023. "The Dynamic Market for Short-Cycle Higher Education Programs," Borradores de Economia 1265, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Bernstein, Shai & Colonnelli, Emanuele & Malacrino, Davide & McQuade, Tim, 2022. "Who creates new firms when local opportunities arise?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 107-130.
    8. Ping Chen & Jiawei Gao & Zheng Ji & Han Liang & Yu Peng, 2022. "Do Artificial Intelligence Applications Affect Carbon Emission Performance?—Evidence from Panel Data Analysis of Chinese Cities," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-16, August.
    9. Ludger Woessmann, 2024. "Skills and Earnings: A Multidimensional Perspective on Human Capital," CESifo Working Paper Series 11428, CESifo.
    10. Clément Bosquet & Paul Maarek & Elliot Moiteaux, 2021. "Routine-biased technological change and wages by education level: Occupational downgrading and displacement effects," Working Papers hal-03270715, HAL.
    11. Benjamin Lerch, 2021. "From Blue to Steel-Collar Jobs: The Decline in Employment Gaps?," IdEP Economic Papers 2102, USI Università della Svizzera italiana.
    12. Bas, Maria & Bombarda, Pamela & Jean, Sébastien & Orefice, Gianluca, 2021. "Firms’ exports, volatility and skills: Evidence from France," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    13. Maarek, Paul & Moiteaux, Elliot, 2021. "Polarization, employment and the minimum wage: Evidence from European local labor markets," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    14. Marin, Giovanni & Vona, Francesco, 2019. "Climate policies and skill-biased employment dynamics: Evidence from EU countries," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    15. Jerbashian, Vahagn, 2021. "Trade in information technologies and changes in the demand for occupations," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    16. Armona, Luis & Chakrabarti, Rajashri & Lovenheim, Michael F., 2022. "Student debt and default: The role of for-profit colleges," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 67-92.
    17. Zhang, Xinchun & Sun, Murong & Liu, Jianxu & Xu, Aijia, 2024. "The nexus between industrial robot and employment in China: The effects of technology substitution and technology creation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    18. Egana-delSol, Pablo & Micco, Alejandro, 2024. "The Role of Technological Change in the Evolution of the Employment to Output Elasticity," IZA Discussion Papers 17003, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Lisa Simon, 2018. "Shocking Choice: Trade Shocks, Local Labor Markets and Vocational Occupation Choices," ifo Working Paper Series 281, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    20. Taniguchi, Hiroya & Yamada, Ken, 2022. "ICT capital–skill complementarity and wage inequality: Evidence from OECD countries," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31572. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.