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Structural Increases in Skill Demand after the Great Recession

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  • Peter Q. Blair
  • David J. Deming

Abstract

In this paper we use detailed job vacancy data to estimate changes in skill demand in the years since the Great Recession. The share of job vacancies requiring a bachelor’s degree increased by more than 60 percent between 2007 and 2019, with faster growth in professional occupations and high-wage cities. Since the labor market was becoming tighter over this period, cyclical “upskilling” is unlikely to explain our findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Q. Blair & David J. Deming, 2020. "Structural Increases in Skill Demand after the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 26680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26680
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Deming & Lisa B. Kahn, 2018. "Skill Requirements across Firms and Labor Markets: Evidence from Job Postings for Professionals," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(S1), pages 337-369.
    2. Robert G. Valletta, 2018. "Recent Flattening in the Higher Education Wage Premium: Polarization, Skill Downgrading, or Both?," NBER Chapters, in: Education, Skills, and Technical Change: Implications for Future US GDP Growth, pages 313-342, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Brad Hershbein & Lisa B. Kahn, 2018. "Do Recessions Accelerate Routine-Biased Technological Change? Evidence from Vacancy Postings," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(7), pages 1737-1772, July.
    4. David Autor & Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz, 2020. "Extending the Race between Education and Technology," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 347-351, May.
    5. Modestino, Alicia Sasser & Shoag, Daniel & Ballance, Joshua, 2016. "Downskilling: changes in employer skill requirements over the business cycle," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 333-347.
    6. Hulten, Charles R. & Ramey, Valerie A. (ed.), 2018. "Education, Skills, and Technical Change," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226567808.
    7. Charles R. Hulten & Valerie A. Ramey, 2018. "Education, Skills, and Technical Change: Implications for Future US GDP Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number hult-12.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lyu, Wenjing & Liu, Jin, 2021. "Soft skills, hard skills: What matters most? Evidence from job postings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    2. Olha Cheromukhina, 2024. "Labour Market In Ukraine Under The Influence Of A Year Of Full-Scale War," Three Seas Economic Journal, Publishing house "Baltija Publishing", vol. 5(1).
    3. Maciej Berk{e}sewicz & Herman Cherniaiev & Robert Pater, 2021. "Estimating the number of entities with vacancies using administrative and online data," Papers 2106.03263, arXiv.org.
    4. Conzelmann, Johnathan G. & Hemelt, Steven W. & Hershbein, Brad J. & Martin, Shawn & Simon, Andrew & Stange, Kevin, 2023. "Skills, Majors, and Jobs: Does Higher Education Respond?," IZA Discussion Papers 16405, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Morgan Raux, 2019. "Looking for the "Best and Brightest": Hiring difficulties and high-skilled foreign workers," Working Papers halshs-02364921, HAL.
    6. Kakuho Furukawa & Yoshihiko Hogen & Yosuke Kido, "undated". "Labor Market of Regular Workers in Japan: A Perspective from Job Advertisement Data," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 23-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    7. Peter Q. Blair & Tomas G. Castagnino & Erica L. Groshen & Papia Debroy & Byron Auguste & Shad Ahmed & Fernando Garcia Diaz & Cristian Bonavida, 2020. "Searching for STARs: Work Experience as a Job Market Signal for Workers without Bachelor's Degrees," NBER Working Papers 26844, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Bennett, Fidel & Escudero, Verónica & Liepmann, Hannah & Podjanin, Ana, 2022. "Using Online Vacancy and Job Applicants' Data to Study Skills Dynamics," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264023, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Pham, Tho & Talavera, Oleksandr & Wu, Zhuangchen, 2023. "Labor markets during war time: Evidence from online job advertisements," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1316-1333.
    10. Colja Schneck, 2021. "Trends in Wage Inequality in the Netherlands," De Economist, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 253-289, August.
    11. David Evans & Claire Mason & Haohui Chen & Andrew Reeson, 2024. "Accelerated demand for interpersonal skills in the Australian post-pandemic labour market," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 32-42, January.
    12. Alekseeva, Liudmila & Azar, José & Giné, Mireia & Samila, Sampsa & Taska, Bledi, 2021. "The demand for AI skills in the labor market," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    13. Costanza Naguib, 2022. "Financial Turmoil and Earnings Mobility," Diskussionsschriften dp2208, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    14. Josten, Cecily & Krause, Helen & Lordan, Grace & Yeung, Brian, 2024. "What skills pay more? The changing demand and return to skills for professional workers," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121450, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Tho Pham & Oleksandr Talavera & Zhuangchen Wu, 2023. "Labor Markets during War Time: Evidence from Online Job Ads," Discussion Papers 23-03, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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