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News Shocks

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  • Robert B. Barsky
  • Eric R. Sims

Abstract

We implement a new approach for the identification of "news shocks" about future technology. In a VAR featuring a measure of aggregate technology and several forward-looking variables, we identify the news shock as the shock orthogonal to technology innovations that best explains future variation in technology. In the data, news shocks account for the bulk of low frequency variation in technology. News shocks are positively correlated with consumption, stock price, and consumer confidence innovations, and negatively correlated with inflation innovations. The disinflationary nature of news shocks is consistent with the implications of sensibly modified versions of a New Keynesian model.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert B. Barsky & Eric R. Sims, 2009. "News Shocks," NBER Working Papers 15312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15312
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    Cited by:

    1. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2014. "No News in Business Cycles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(581), pages 1168-1191, December.
    2. Jinnai, Ryo, 2013. "News shocks and inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 176-179.
    3. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Sims, Eric R., 2012. "Confidence and the transmission of government spending shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 235-249.
    4. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2017. "Expectations-driven cycles in the housing market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 297-312.
    5. Matsumoto, Akito & Cova, Pietro & Pisani, Massimiliano & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2011. "News shocks and asset price volatility in general equilibrium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2132-2149.
    6. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2017. "Expectations-driven cycles in the housing market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 297-312.
    7. Razzak, Weshah, 2013. "An Empirical Study of Sectoral-Level Capital Investments in New Zealand," MPRA Paper 52461, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Andr? Kurmann & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2612-2632, October.
    9. Lawrence J. Christiano & Cosmin Ilut & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2010. "Monetary policy and stock market booms," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 85-145.
    10. Paul Beaudry & Martial Dupaigne & Franck Portier, 2011. "Modeling News-Driven International Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 72-91, January.
    11. Tim Oliver Berg, 2015. "Technology News and the US Economy: Time Variation and Structural Changes," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 62(3), pages 227-263, July.
    12. Karnizova Lilia, 2012. "News Shocks, Productivity and the U.S. Investment Boom-Bust Cycle," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-50, June.
    13. Stefan Avdjiev, 2016. "News Driven Business Cycles and Data on Asset Prices in Estimated DSGE Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 20, pages 181-197, April.
    14. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2012_002 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Mertens, Elmar, 2010. "Structural shocks and the comovements between output and interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1171-1186, June.
    16. Nam, Deokwoo & Wang, Jian, 2014. "Are predictable improvements in TFP contractionary or expansionary: Implications from sectoral TFP?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 171-175.
    17. Ryo Jinnai, 2011. "News Shocks, Price Levels, and Monetary Policy," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd10-173, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    18. Kapinos, Pavel, 2011. "Forward-looking monetary policy and anticipated shocks to inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 620-633.
    19. Paul Beaudry & Deokwoo Nam & Jian Wang, 2011. "Do Mood Swings Drive Business Cycles and is it Rational?," NBER Working Papers 17651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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