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No News in Business Cycles

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  • Forni, Mario
  • Sala, Luca
  • Gambetti, Luca

Abstract

This paper uses a structural, large dimensional factor model to evaluate the role of 'news' shocks (shocks with a delayed effect on productivity) in generating the business cycle. We find that (i) existing small-scale VECM models are affected by 'non-fundamentalness' and therefore fail to recover the correct shock and impulse response functions; (ii) news shocks have a limited role in explaining the business cycle; (iii) their effects are in line with what predicted by standard neoclassical theory; (iv) the bulk of business cycle fluctuations is explained by shocks unrelated to technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Forni, Mario & Sala, Luca & Gambetti, Luca, 2011. "No News in Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 8274, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8274
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fundamentalness; Invertibility; News shocks; Structural factor model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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