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Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve

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  • Laurence Ball
  • Robert Moffitt

Abstract

We present a model in which workers' aspirations for wage increases adjust slowly to shifts in productivity growth. The model yields a Phillips curve with a new variable: the gap between productivity growth and an average of past wage growth. Empirically, this variable shows up strongly in the U.S. Phillips curve. Including it explains the otherwise puzzling shift in the unemployment-inflation tradeoff since 1995.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurence Ball & Robert Moffitt, 2001. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 8421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8421
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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