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Expectations-Driven Cycles in the Housing Market

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  • Luisa Lambertini

    (Chair of International Finance, Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL), Switzerland)

  • Caterina Mendicino
  • Maria Teresa Punzi

Abstract

This paper analyzes housing market boom-bust cycles driven by changes in households' expectations. We explore the role of expectations on productivity and other shocks originating from the housing market, the credit market and the conduct of monetary policy. We find that expectations related to different sectors of the economy can generate booms in the housing market in accordance with empirical findings. Only expectations of future expansionary monetary policy that are not fulfilled can generate a macroeconomic recession. Regarding the credit market, increased access to credit generates boom-bust cycles only if it is expected to be reversed in the near future.

Suggested Citation

  • Luisa Lambertini & Caterina Mendicino & Maria Teresa Punzi, 2010. "Expectations-Driven Cycles in the Housing Market," Working Papers 201001, Center for Fiscal Policy, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne, revised Oct 2010.
    • Handle: RePEc:cif:wpaper:201001
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    boom-bust cycles; credit frictions; housing market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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