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Sentiments in SVARs

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  • Patrick Feve

    (University of Toulouse)

Abstract

This paper investigates the contribution of sentiments shocks to US fluctuations in a Structural VAR setup. Sentiments shocks are identified as shocks orthogonal to fundamentals that accounts for most of the variance of confidence. We assess our identification procedure from simulation experiments and show that it performs pretty well. From actual data, we obtain that, contrary to news shocks on total factor productivity, sentiments shocks explain very little of quantities and prices. Sentiments shocks mostly appear as an idiosyncratic component of confidence. These results are robust to various perturbations of the benchmark model.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Feve, 2016. "Sentiments in SVARs," 2016 Meeting Papers 175, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed016:175
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    3. Fève, Patrick & Collard, Fabrice & Guay, Alain, 2024. "Believe it or not, it’s all about Beliefs!," TSE Working Papers 24-1539, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    4. Brianti, Marco & Cormun, Vito, 2023. "Expectation-Driven Boom-Bust Cycles," Working Papers 2023-4, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    5. Benhima, Kenza & Poilly, Céline, 2021. "Does demand noise matter? Identification and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 278-295.
    6. Christopher Biolsi & Alex Lebedinsky, 2021. "Can changes in sentiments influence consumer behavior? Evidence from the Trump‐Russia investigation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(4), pages 1569-1592, October.

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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