IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/0229.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On the Accuracy and Properties of Recent Macroeconomic Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Victor Zarnowitz

Abstract

The aim of this study is to contribute to the measurement and analysis of errors in economists' predictions of changes in aggregate income, output, and the price level. Small sample studies of forecasts can be instructive, but their limitations must be recognized. Compilation of consistent forecast records extending over longer periods of tine is necessary to establish a reasonably reliable base for assessments of forecasting behavior and. performance. Thus the historical record of post-World War II forecasts assembled in the 1960's by the NBER is here extended and updated.

Suggested Citation

  • Victor Zarnowitz, 1978. "On the Accuracy and Properties of Recent Macroeconomic Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 0229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0229
    Note: EFG
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w0229.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 3-46, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Michael K. Evans & Lawrence R. Klein & Mitsuo Saito & Michael D. McCarthy, 1972. "Short-Run Prediction and Long-Run Simulation of the Wharton Model," NBER Chapters, in: Econometric Models of Cyclical Behavior, Volumes 1 and 2, pages 139-200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Christ, Carl F, 1975. "Judging the Performance of Econometric Models of the U.S. Economy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(1), pages 54-74, February.
    4. Gary Fromm & Lawrence R. Klein, 1976. "THE NBER/NSF Model Comparison Seminar: An Analysis of Results," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 1, pages 1-28, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Samuelson, Paul A, 1976. "Optimality of Sluggish Predictors under Ergodic Probabilities," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 17(1), pages 1-7, February.
    6. Michael Sapir, 1949. "Review of Economic Forecasts for the Transition Period," NBER Chapters, in: Studies in Income and Wealth, Volume 11, pages 273-368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Hatanaka, Michio, 1975. "The Underestimation of Variations in the Forecast Series: A Note," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(1), pages 151-160, February.
    8. L. R. Klein, 1946. "A Post-Mortem on Transition Predictions of National Product," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 289-289.
    9. Duggal, Vijaya G & Klein, Lawrence R & McCarthy, Michael D, 1974. "The Wharton Model Mark III: A Modern IS-LM Construct," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(3), pages 572-594, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2004. "History of macroeconometric modelling: lessons from past experience," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 265-281, February.
    2. Capistrán Carlos & López Moctezuma Gabriel, 2008. "Experts' Macroeconomics Expectations: An Evaluation of Mexican Short-Run Forecasts," Working Papers 2008-11, Banco de México.
    3. Karine Bouthevillain & Alexandre Mathis, 1995. "Prévisions : mesures, erreurs et principaux résultats," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 285(1), pages 89-100.
    4. Karine Bouthevillain, 1993. "La prévision macro-économique : précision relative et consensus," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 108(2), pages 97-126.
    5. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2004. "History of macroeconometric modelling: lessons from past experience," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 265-281, February.
    6. Olkhov, Victor, 2024. "Lower bounds of uncertainty and upper limits on the accuracy of forecasts of macroeconomic variables," MPRA Paper 121628, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2005. "Macroeconometric Modelling: Approaches and Experiences in Developing Countries," Economics Working Papers wp05-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    8. Valadkhani, A., 2005. "Macroeconomic Modelling: Approaches and Experiences in Development Countries," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 5(1).
    9. Didier Borowski & Carine Bouthevillain & Catherine Doz & Pierre Malgrange & Pierre Morin, 1991. "Vingt ans de prévisions macro-économiques : une évaluation sur données françaises," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 99(3), pages 43-65.
    10. Capistrán, Carlos & López-Moctezuma, Gabriel, 2010. "Las expectativas macroeconómicas de los especialistas. Una evaluación de pronósticos de corto plazo en México," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(306), pages 275-312, abril-jun.
    11. Alain Fonteneau, 1982. "La fiabilité des prévisions macroéconomiques à court terme : 12 ans d'expériences françaises (1970-1981)," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 2(1), pages 69-111.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. I. J. Macfarlane & J. R. Hawkins, 1983. "Economic Forecasts and Their Assessment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 59(4), pages 321-331, December.
    2. repec:lan:wpaper:470 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Ash, J. C. K. & Smyth, D. J. & Heravi, S. M., 1997. "The accuracy of OECD forecasts of the international economy: balance of payments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 969-987, December.
    4. repec:lan:wpaper:425 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:lan:wpaper:539557 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:lan:wpaper:413 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
    8. West, Carol Taylor, 2003. "Structural Regional Factors that Determine Absolute and Relative Accuracy of U.S. Regional Labor Market Forecasts," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 35(Supplemen), pages 1-15.
    9. Patrick Artus & Pierre-Alain Muet, 1980. "Une étude comparative des propriétés dynamiques de dix modèles américains et cinq modèles français," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 31(1), pages 88-120.
    10. Victor Zarnowitz, 1982. "Expectations and Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys," NBER Working Papers 0845, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Freebairn, John W., 1975. "Forecasting For Australian Agriculture," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 19(3), pages 1-21, December.
    12. Karine Bouthevillain, 1993. "La prévision macro-économique : précision relative et consensus," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 108(2), pages 97-126.
    13. Artus Patrick & Muet Pierre-alain, 1979. "Etude comparative des propriétés dynamiques de dix modèles américains et cinq modèles français (une)," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 7906, CEPREMAP.
    14. Papastamos, Dimitrios & Matysiak, George & Stevenson, Simon, 2015. "Assessing the accuracy and dispersion of real estate investment forecasts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 141-152.
    15. Michalski, Raphael Joseph, 1977. "An application of consistent statistical estimation to a nonlinear macroeconomic policy model," ISU General Staff Papers 197701010800007086, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    16. Fair, Ray C., 1986. "Evaluating the predictive accuracy of models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1979-1995, Elsevier.
    17. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    18. Calzolari, Giorgio & Ciriani, Tito A. & Corsi, Paolo, 1976. "Generation and testing of pseudo-random numbers to be used in the stochastic simulation of econometric models," MPRA Paper 24172, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 122-157, March.
    20. Jan Jacobs & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2009. "The information content of KOF indicators on Swiss current account data revisions," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2008(2), pages 161-181.
    21. Christina Ziegler, 2009. "Testing Predicitive Ability of Business Cycle Indicators for the Euro Area," ifo Working Paper Series 69, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    22. repec:kap:iaecre:v:14:y:2008:i:1:p:112-124 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Ericsson, Neil R., 2016. "Eliciting GDP forecasts from the FOMC’s minutes around the financial crisis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 571-583.
    24. Pascal Bührig & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2015. "Revisionen der deutschen Industrieproduktion und die ifo Indikatoren," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(21), pages 27-31, November.
    25. Baris Soybilgen & Ege Yazgan, 2017. "An evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 17(1), pages 1-31–38.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0229. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.