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Economic Forecasts and Their Assessment

Author

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  • I.J. Macfarlane

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • J.R. Hawkins

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

This paper looks at the accuracy of economic forecasts and whether it is possible to rank different forecasters by their degree of accuracy. The first section examines the accuracy of economic forecasts in general and by examining a subset of twelve Australian forecasters over a five year period. The second section addresses the question of whether it is possible to rank forecasters in order of merit. The paper concludes that the problems are sufficiently large for it to be unlikely that a meaningful and stable ranking could be obtained.

Suggested Citation

  • I.J. Macfarlane & J.R. Hawkins, 1983. "Economic Forecasts and Their Assessment," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp8302, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp8302
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 3-46, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ronald L. Cooper, 1972. "The Predictive Performance of Quarterly Econometric Models of the United States," NBER Chapters, in: Econometric Models of Cyclical Behavior, Volumes 1 and 2, pages 813-947, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Michael Sapir, 1949. "Review of Economic Forecasts for the Transition Period," NBER Chapters, in: Studies in Income and Wealth, Volume 11, pages 273-368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. D. J. Smyth, 1966. "How Well do Australian Economists Forecast," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 42(1-4), pages 293-311, March.
    5. Howrey, E Philip & Klein, Lawrence R & McCarthy, Michael D, 1974. "Notes on Testing the Predictive Performance of Econometric Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(2), pages 366-383, June.
    6. Christ, Carl F, 1975. "Judging the Performance of Econometric Models of the U.S. Economy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(1), pages 54-74, February.
    7. Gary Fromm & Lawrence R. Klein, 1976. "THE NBER/NSF Model Comparison Seminar: An Analysis of Results," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 1, pages 1-28, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. John A. Carlson, 1977. "A Study of Price Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 6, number 1, pages 27-56, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Smyth, David J & Ash, J C K, 1975. "Forecasting Gross National Product, the Rate of Inflation and the Balance of Trade: The O. E.C.D. Performance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 85(338), pages 361-364, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jocelyn Horne, 1983. "The Money Formation Table Approach to Forecasting: An Evaluation of the Institute Money Supply Forecasts," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 16(4), pages 69-77, December.
    2. Robert Ewing & David Gruen & John Hawkins, 2005. "Forecasting the macro economy," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 2, pages 11-25, June.

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