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Structural Regional Factors that Determine Absolute and Relative Accuracy of U.S. Regional Labor Market Forecasts

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  • West, Carol Taylor

Abstract

Panel data on regional employment forecasts from structural equation econometric models and time-series models are used to examine whether accuracy of the forecasts can be predicted, both absolutely and relatively. Specification of accuracy includes the time forecast was made, forecast horizon, and regional economic/demographic characteristics. The estimated model is able to predict accuracy of each forecast set at high step lengths but is less successful at low step lengths and is not successful at all in predicting relative accuracy. Regional characteristics are significant determinants of accuracy for both sets of forecasts, but the significant characteristics differ across methodologies and step lengths.

Suggested Citation

  • West, Carol Taylor, 2003. "Structural Regional Factors that Determine Absolute and Relative Accuracy of U.S. Regional Labor Market Forecasts," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 35(Supplemen), pages 1-15.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:joaaec:43291
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.43291
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    Cited by:

    1. Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Mukhopadhyay, Somnath, 2013. "Border Region Bridge and Air Transport Predictability," MPRA Paper 59583, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Jul 2013.
    2. Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Angel L. Molina Jr & Adam G. Walke, 2013. "Tolls, exchange rates, and northbound international bridge traffic from Mexico," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(3), pages 305-321, August.
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    4. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2005. "Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Urban/Regional 0501005, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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