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Forecasting For Australian Agriculture

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  • John W. Freebairn

Abstract

The paper provides a review of the objectives of forecasts and of the techniques for generating forecasts in the context of agriculture. Forecasts provide information to facilitate decision making. The techniques are evaluated in terms of assumptions about the processes generating the forecast variables, their relative requirements for time, data and other resources, and their relative forecast accuracy. An evaluation of naive, informal model and econometric model forecasts of Australian agricultural commodity prices and production levels is reported.
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Suggested Citation

  • John W. Freebairn, 1975. "Forecasting For Australian Agriculture," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 19(3), pages 154-174, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ajarec:v:19:y:1975:i:3:p:154-174
    DOI: j.1467-8489.1975.tb00156.x
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    1. Feldstein, Martin S, 1971. "The Error of Forecast in Econometric Models when the Forecast-Period Exogenous Variables are Stochastic," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(1), pages 55-60, January.
    2. David J. Smyth, 1973. "Effect of Public Price Forecasts on Market Price Variation: A Stochastic Cobweb Example," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 55(1), pages 83-88.
    3. Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 3-46, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Christ, Carl F, 1975. "Judging the Performance of Econometric Models of the U.S. Economy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(1), pages 54-74, February.
    5. N.C. Mackrell, 1974. "Techniques of Short Term Forecasting," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp36, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    7. Phoebus J. Dhrymes & E. Philip Howrey & Saul H. Hymans & Jan Kmenta & Edward E. Leamer & Richard E. Quandt & James B. Ramsey & Harold T. Shapiro & Victor Zarnowitz, 1972. "Criteria for Evaluation of Econometric Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 1, number 3, pages 291-324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Andrew W. Ashby, 1964. "On Forecasting Commodity Prices by the Balance Sheet Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 46(3), pages 633-643.
    9. Raymond M. Leuthold, 1975. "On the Use of Theil's Inequality Coefficients," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 57(2), pages 344-346.
    10. Hayami, Yujiro & Peterson, Willis, 1972. "Social Returns to Public Information Services: Statistical Reporting of U. S. Farm Commodities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 119-130, March.
    11. repec:bla:ecorec:v:48:y:1972:i:121:p:116-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Stuart Harris, 1974. "Changes In The Terms Of Trade For Agriculture: New Plateau Or New Precipice," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 18(2), pages 85-100, August.
    13. Howrey, E Philip & Klein, Lawrence R & McCarthy, Michael D, 1974. "Notes on Testing the Predictive Performance of Econometric Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(2), pages 366-383, June.
    14. Harris, Stuart, 1974. "Changes In The Terms Of Trade For Agriculture: New Plateau Or New Precipice," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 18(2), pages 1-16, August.
    15. Schmidt, Peter, 1974. "The Asymptotic Distribution of Forecasts in the Dynamic Simulation of an Econometric Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(2), pages 303-309, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kingwell, Ross S., 2002. "Issues for Farm Management in the 21st Century: A view from the West," 2002 Conference (46th), February 13-15, 2002, Canberra, Australia 173982, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    2. Gruen, Fred H.G., 1998. "A quarter of a century of Australian agricultural economics - some personal reflections," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 42(2), pages 1-14.
    3. Vere, David T. & Griffith, Garry R., 1995. "Forecasting in the Australian Lamb Industry: the Influence of Alternate Price Determination Processes," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 63(03), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Nelson, Rohan & Cameron, Andrew & Xia, Charley & Gooday, Peter, 2022. "The ABARES Approach to Forecasting Agricultural Commodity Markets," Australasian Agribusiness Review, University of Melbourne, Department of Agriculture and Food Systems, vol. 30(6), November.
    5. Jolly, L.O. & Wong, Gordon, 1987. "Composite Forecasting: some empirical results using BAE short-term forecasts," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 55(01), pages 1-23, April.
    6. Vere, David T. & Griffith, Garry R., 1990. "Comparative Forecast Accuracy In The New South Wales Prime Lamb Market," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 34(2), pages 1-15, August.
    7. Stent, W.R., 1976. "Critique Of The Methodology Of Australian Agricultural Economics," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 20(1), pages 1-18, April.
    8. Cameron, Andrew & Nelson, Rohan, 2022. "Enabling Users to Evaluate the Accuracy of ABARES Agricultural Forecasts," Australasian Agribusiness Review, University of Melbourne, Department of Agriculture and Food Systems, vol. 30(7), November.
    9. Yu Zhao & Xi Zhang & Zhongshun Shi & Lei He, 2017. "Grain Price Forecasting Using a Hybrid Stochastic Method," Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research (APJOR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 34(05), pages 1-24, October.
    10. Bathgate, Andrew D. & Kingwell, Ross S. & O'Connell, Michael, 1999. "WOOL’S FUTURE in WESTERN AUSTRALIA and the R&D IMPLICATIONS: A Discussion Paper," 1999 Conference (43th), January 20-22, 1999, Christchurch, New Zealand 123761, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    11. Lee, B.M.S. & Bui-Lan, Anh, 1982. "Use Of Errors Of Prediction In Improving Forecast Accuracy: An Application To Wool In Australia," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 26(1), pages 1-14, April.
    12. Hardaker, J. Brian, 1985. "Beliefs And Values In Agricultural Economics Research," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 29(2), pages 1-10, August.
    13. Freebairn, John W., 1978. "An Evaluation of Outlook Information for Australian Agricultural Commodities," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 46(03), pages 1-21, December.
    14. Gellatly, Colin, 1979. "Forecasting N.S.W. Beef Production: An Evaluation of Alternative Techniques," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 47(02), pages 1-14, August.

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