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Dealing With Imperfect Randomization: Inference for the Highscope Perry Preschool Program

Author

Listed:
  • Heckman, James J.

    (University of Chicago)

  • Pinto, Rodrigo

    (University of California, Los Angeles)

  • Shaikh, Azeem M.

    (University of Chicago)

Abstract

This paper considers the problem of making inferences about the effects of a program on multiple outcomes when the assignment of treatment status is imperfectly randomized. By imperfect randomization we mean that treatment status is reassigned after an initial randomization on the basis of characteristics that may be observed or unobserved by the analyst. We develop a partial identification approach to this problem that makes use of information limiting the extent to which randomization is imperfect to show that it is still possible to make nontrivial inferences about the effects of the program in such settings. We consider a family of null hypotheses in which each null hypothesis species that the program has no effect on one of many outcomes of interest. Under weak assumptions, we construct a procedure for testing this family of null hypotheses in a way that controls the familywise error rate – the probability of even one false rejection – in finite samples. We develop our methodology in the context of a reanalysis of the HighScope Perry Preschool program. We find statistically signicant effects of the program on a number of different outcomes of interest, including outcomes related to criminal activity for males and females, even after accounting for imperfections in the randomization and the multiplicity of null hypotheses.

Suggested Citation

  • Heckman, James J. & Pinto, Rodrigo & Shaikh, Azeem M., 2023. "Dealing With Imperfect Randomization: Inference for the Highscope Perry Preschool Program," IZA Discussion Papers 16675, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16675
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Azeem M. Shaikh & Panos Toulis, 2021. "Randomization Tests in Observational Studies With Staggered Adoption of Treatment," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(536), pages 1835-1848, October.
    2. Ivan A Canay & Vishal Kamat, 2018. "Approximate Permutation Tests and Induced Order Statistics in the Regression Discontinuity Design," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(3), pages 1577-1608.
    3. Federico A. Bugni & Ivan A. Canay & Azeem M. Shaikh, 2018. "Inference Under Covariate-Adaptive Randomization," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 113(524), pages 1784-1796, October.
    4. James J Heckman & Ganesh Karapakula, 2021. "Using a satisficing model of experimenter decision-making to guide finite-sample inference for compromised experiments," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 24(2), pages 1-39.
    5. Yuehao Bai & Joseph P. Romano & Azeem M. Shaikh, 2022. "Inference in Experiments With Matched Pairs," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 117(540), pages 1726-1737, October.
    6. G W Basse & A Feller & P Toulis, 2019. "Randomization tests of causal effects under interference," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 106(2), pages 487-494.
    7. Joseph P. Romano & Azeem M. Shaikh, 2010. "Inference for the Identified Set in Partially Identified Econometric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(1), pages 169-211, January.
    8. James Heckman & Seong Hyeok Moon & Rodrigo Pinto & Peter Savelyev & Adam Yavitz, 2010. "Analyzing social experiments as implemented: A reexamination of the evidence from the HighScope Perry Preschool Program," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 1(1), pages 1-46, July.
    9. James Heckman & Rodrigo Pinto & Peter Savelyev, 2013. "Understanding the Mechanisms through Which an Influential Early Childhood Program Boosted Adult Outcomes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2052-2086, October.
    10. Romano, Joseph P. & Shaikh, Azeem M. & Wolf, Michael, 2008. "Formalized Data Snooping Based On Generalized Error Rates," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(2), pages 404-447, April.
    11. Peter Ganong & Simon Jäger, 2018. "A Permutation Test for the Regression Kink Design," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 113(522), pages 494-504, April.
    12. Jorge Luis García & James J. Heckman & Victor Ronda, 2023. "The Lasting Effects of Early-Childhood Education on Promoting the Skills and Social Mobility of Disadvantaged African Americans and Their Children," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 131(6), pages 1477-1506.
    13. Joseph P. Romano & Michael Wolf, 2005. "Exact and Approximate Stepdown Methods for Multiple Hypothesis Testing," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 94-108, March.
    14. Heckman, James J. & Moon, Seong Hyeok & Pinto, Rodrigo & Savelyev, Peter A. & Yavitz, Adam, 2010. "The rate of return to the HighScope Perry Preschool Program," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 114-128, February.
    15. Ivan A. Canay & Andres Santos & Azeem M. Shaikh, 2021. "The Wild Bootstrap with a “Small†Number of “Large†Clusters," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(2), pages 346-363, May.
    16. Cai Yong & Canay Ivan A. & Kim Deborah & Shaikh Azeem M., 2023. "On the Implementation of Approximate Randomization Tests in Linear Models with a Small Number of Clusters," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 85-103, January.
    17. James J. Heckman & Ganesh Karapakula, 2019. "The Perry Preschoolers at Late Midlife: A Study in Design-Specific Inference," Working Papers 2019-034, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    18. Ivan A. Canay & Joseph P. Romano & Azeem M. Shaikh, 2017. "Randomization Tests Under an Approximate Symmetry Assumption," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 1013-1030, May.
    19. Joseph P. Romano & Azeem M. Shaikh & Michael Wolf, 2010. "Hypothesis Testing in Econometrics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 75-104, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exact inference; experiments; familywise error rate; imperfect randomization; multiple testing; multiple outcomes; permutation tests; Perry Preschool Program; program evaluation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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