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The Twin Instrument: Fertility and Human Capital Investment

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  • Bhalotra, Sonia R.

    (University of Warwick)

  • Clarke, Damian

    (University of Chile)

Abstract

Twin births are often used to instrument fertility to address (negative) selection of women into fertility. However recent work shows positive selection of women into twin birth. Thus, while OLS estimates will tend to be downward biased, twin-IV estimates will tend to be upward biased. This is pertinent given the emerging consensus that fertility has limited impacts on women's labour supply, or on investments in children. Using data for developing countries and the United States, we demonstrate the nature and size of the bias in the twin-IV estimator of the quantity-quality trade-off and estimate bounds on the true parameter.

Suggested Citation

  • Bhalotra, Sonia R. & Clarke, Damian, 2018. "The Twin Instrument: Fertility and Human Capital Investment," IZA Discussion Papers 11878, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11878
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    Cited by:

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    2. French, Eric Baird & O’Dea, Cormac & MacCuish, Jamie, 2021. "The Intergenerational Elasticity of Earnings: Exploring the Mechanisms," CEPR Discussion Papers 15975, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Fenske, James & Wang, Shizhuo, 2023. "Tradition and mortality: Evidence from twin infanticide in Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    4. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Nasir Iqbal & Saima Nawaz & Siew Ling Yew, 2024. "Do unconditional cash transfers increase fertility? Lessons from a large‐scale program," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 74-96, January.
    5. Bhalotra, Sonia & Clarke, Damian & Walther, Selma, 2022. "Women's Careers and Family Formation," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1120, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    6. Öberg, Stefan, 2018. "Instrumental variables based on twin births are by definition not valid (v.3.0)," SocArXiv zux9s, Center for Open Science.
    7. Jeanne Lafortune & Corinne Low, 2023. "Collateralized Marriage," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 252-291, October.
    8. Mookerjee, Mehreen & Ojha, Manini & Roy, Sanket, 2023. "Family planning practices: Examining the link between contraception and child health," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    9. Sarrias, Mauricio & Blanco, Alejandra, 2022. "Bodyweight and human capital development: Assessing the impact of obesity on socioemotional skills during childhood in Chile," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    10. Wei Fan & Catherine Porter, 2020. "Reinforcement or compensation? Parental responses to children’s revealed human capital levels," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(1), pages 233-270, January.
    11. Houmark, Mikkel Aagaard, 2023. "First Among Equals? How Birth Order Shapes Child Development," MPRA Paper 119325, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Santosh Kumar & Kaushalendra Kumar & Ramanan Laxminarayan & Arindam Nandi, 2022. "Birth Weight and Cognitive Development during Childhood: Evidence from India," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 41(2), pages 155-175, June.
    13. Beatrice Baaba Tawiah, 2023. "The Effect of Children on Health," Working Papers Dissertations 103, Paderborn University, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics.
    14. Delprato, Marcos, 2022. "Educational gender gap in sub-Saharan Africa: Does the estimation method matter? A comparison using a sample of opposite sex twins," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    15. Bonsang, Eric & Pronkina, Elizaveta, 2023. "Family size and vaccination among older individuals: The case of COVID-19 vaccine," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    16. Kaat Van Hoyweghen & Janne Bemelmans & Hendrik Feyaerts & Goedele Van den Broeck & Miet Maertens, 2023. "Small Family, Happy Family? Fertility Preferences and the Quantity–Quality Trade-Off in Sub-Saharan Africa," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(6), pages 1-35, December.
    17. Cepaluni, Gabriel & Chewning, Taylor Kinsley & Driscoll, Amanda & Faganello, Marco Antonio, 2022. "Conditional cash transfers and child labor," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    18. Ramon Ramon-Muñoz & Josep-Maria Ramon-Muñoz & Begoña Candela-Martínez, 2021. "Sibship Size, Height and Cohort Selection: A Methodological Approach," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-29, December.
    19. Öberg, Stefan, 2021. "The casual effect of fertility: The multiple problems with instrumental variables for the number of children in families," SocArXiv peuvz, Center for Open Science.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    quantity-quality trade-off; bounds; maternal health; IV; parental investment; twins; fertility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • D13 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Production and Intrahouse Allocation
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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