IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/paaero/233132.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Projekcja Zmian Wielkości Plonów Pszenicy W Polsce I Unii Europejskiej W Latach 2030 I 2050 Na Podstawie Modelu Capri

Author

Listed:
  • Syp, Alina

Abstract

The aim of the study was to determine the dynamics of changes in wheat yield in Poland and the European Union in 2030 and 2050. The analysis was performed using the model CAPRI (The Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact) for the reference of socio-economic scenario. Based on the CAPRI model in 2030 , an average increase of 24% in wheat yield is projected in the 27 European Union countries compared to 2010. In 2050, the average wheat yield will be by 40% higher than in 2010. In Poland, an increase of wheat yields by 37 and 61%, respectively, is forecasted for 2030 and 2050. The increase of yield will be possible due to the implementation of new wheat varieties adapted to adverse soil and climatic conditions, as well as the organizational and economic changes in agricultural holdings.

Suggested Citation

  • Syp, Alina, 2015. "Projekcja Zmian Wielkości Plonów Pszenicy W Polsce I Unii Europejskiej W Latach 2030 I 2050 Na Podstawie Modelu Capri," Roczniki (Annals), Polish Association of Agricultural Economists and Agribusiness - Stowarzyszenie Ekonomistow Rolnictwa e Agrobiznesu (SERiA), vol. 2015(2), April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:paaero:233132
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.233132
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/233132/files/17-2-Syp.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.233132?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shrestha, Shailesh & Ciaian, Pavel & Himics, Mihay & Van Doorslaer, Benjamin, 2013. "Impacts of Climate Change on EU Agriculture," Review of Agricultural and Applied Economics (RAAE), Faculty of Economics and Management, Slovak Agricultural University in Nitra, vol. 16(2), pages 1-16, September.
    2. Matyka, Mariusz, 2014. "Plonowanie Wybranych Gatunków Roślin w Polsce, Niemczech i 27 Krajach unii Europejskiej w Latach 1961-2012," Roczniki (Annals), Polish Association of Agricultural Economists and Agribusiness - Stowarzyszenie Ekonomistow Rolnictwa e Agrobiznesu (SERiA), vol. 2014(3).
    3. Heinz-Peter Witzke & Pavel Ciaian & Jacques Delince, 2014. "CAPRI long-term climate change scenario analysis: The AgMIP approach," JRC Research Reports JRC85872, Joint Research Centre.
    4. Martin Lampe & Dirk Willenbockel & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Yongxia Cai & Katherine Calvin & Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe & Page Kyle & Hermann Lotze-Campe, 2014. "Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 3-20, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fernández, Francisco J. & Blanco, Maria, 2014. "Integration of biophysical and agro-economic models to assess the economic effects of climate change on agriculture: A review of global and EU regional approaches," Economics Discussion Papers 2014-48, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Fernández, Francisco J. & Blanco, Maria, 2015. "Modelling the economic impacts of climate change on global and European agriculture: Review of economic structural approaches," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 9, pages 1-53.
    3. Heinz-Peter Witzke & Pavel Ciaian & Jacques Delince, 2014. "CAPRI long-term climate change scenario analysis: The AgMIP approach," JRC Research Reports JRC85872, Joint Research Centre.
    4. Shrestha, Shailesh & Hennessy, Thia & Abdalla, Mohamed & Forristal, Dermot & Jones, Michael B., 2014. "Determining Short Term Responses of Irish Dairy Farms under Climate Change," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 63(3).
    5. Zimmermann, Andrea & Webber, Heidi & Zhao, Gang & Ewert, Frank & Kros, Johannes & Wolf, Joost & Britz, Wolfgang & de Vries, Wim, 2017. "Climate change impacts on crop yields, land use and environment in response to crop sowing dates and thermal time requirements," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 81-92.
    6. Blanco, María & Ramos, Fabien & Van Doorslaer, Benjamin & Martínez, Pilar & Fumagalli, Davide & Ceglar, Andrej & Fernández, Francisco J., 2017. "Climate change impacts on EU agriculture: A regionalized perspective taking into account market-driven adjustments," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 52-66.
    7. Shrestha, Shailesh & Hennessy, Thia & Abdalla, Mohamed & Forristal, Dermot & Jones, Michael B., 2014. "Determining Short Term Responses of Irish Dairy Farms under Climate Change," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 63(03), pages 1-13, September.
    8. Maria Blanco & Peter Witzke & Ignacio Perez Dominguez & Guna Salputra & Pilar Martinez, 2015. "Extension of the CAPRI model with an irrigation sub-module," JRC Research Reports JRC99828, Joint Research Centre.
    9. Ayami Hayashi & Fuminori Sano & Takashi Homma & Keigo Akimoto, 2023. "Mitigating trade-offs between global food access and net-zero emissions: the potential contribution of direct air carbon capture and storage," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(5), pages 1-19, May.
    10. Jayatilleke S. Bandara & Yiyong Cai, 2014. "The impact of climate change on food crop productivity, food prices and food security in South Asia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 451-465.
    11. Gerald Nelson & Jessica Bogard & Keith Lividini & Joanne Arsenault & Malcolm Riley & Timothy B. Sulser & Daniel Mason-D’Croz & Brendan Power & David Gustafson & Mario Herrero & Keith Wiebe & Karen Coo, 2018. "Income growth and climate change effects on global nutrition security to mid-century," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 1(12), pages 773-781, December.
    12. Alexander Gocht & Pavel Ciaian & Maria Bielza & Jean-Michel Terres & Norbert Röder & Mihaly Himics & Guna Salputra, 2016. "Economic and environmental impacts of CAP greening: CAPRI simulation results," JRC Research Reports JRC102519, Joint Research Centre.
    13. Lochhead, Kyle & Ghafghazi, Saeed & Havlik, Petr & Forsell, Nicklas & Obersteiner, Michael & Bull, Gary & Mabee, Warren, 2016. "Price trends and volatility scenarios for designing forest sector transformation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 184-191.
    14. Hertel, By Thomas W. & Baldos, Uris L.C. & Fuglie, Keith O., 2020. "Trade in technology: A potential solution to the food security challenges of the 21st century," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    15. Zhao, Xin & Calvin, Katherine & Patel, Pralit & Abigail, Snyder & Wise, Marshall & Waldhoff, Stephanie & Hejazi, Mohamad & Edmonds, James, 2021. "Impacts of interannual climate and biophysical variability on global agriculture markets," Conference papers 333245, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    16. Elke Stehfest, 2014. "Food choices for health and planet," Nature, Nature, vol. 515(7528), pages 501-502, November.
    17. Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Volker Krey & Keywan Riahi & Christoph Bertram & Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Valentina Bosetti & Jessica Callen & Jacques Després & Jonathan Doelman & Laurent Drou, 2019. "A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(5), pages 386-396, May.
    18. H. Charles J. Godfray & Sherman Robinson, 2015. "Contrasting approaches to projecting long-run global food security," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 31(1), pages 26-44.
    19. Alexander Gocht & Pavel Ciaian & Maria Bielza & Jean-Michel Terres & Norbert Röder & Mihaly Himics & Guna Salputra, 2017. "EU-wide Economic and Environmental Impacts of CAP Greening with High Spatial and Farm-type Detail," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(3), pages 651-681, September.
    20. Elke Stehfest & Willem-Jan Zeist & Hugo Valin & Petr Havlik & Alexander Popp & Page Kyle & Andrzej Tabeau & Daniel Mason-D’Croz & Tomoko Hasegawa & Benjamin L. Bodirsky & Katherine Calvin & Jonathan C, 2019. "Key determinants of global land-use projections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agribusiness;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:paaero:233132. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/seriaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.