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Projekcja Zmian Wielkości Plonów Pszenicy W Polsce I Unii Europejskiej W Latach 2030 I 2050 Na Podstawie Modelu Capri

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  • Syp, Alina

Abstract

The aim of the study was to determine the dynamics of changes in wheat yield in Poland and the European Union in 2030 and 2050. The analysis was performed using the model CAPRI (The Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact) for the reference of socio-economic scenario. Based on the CAPRI model in 2030 , an average increase of 24% in wheat yield is projected in the 27 European Union countries compared to 2010. In 2050, the average wheat yield will be by 40% higher than in 2010. In Poland, an increase of wheat yields by 37 and 61%, respectively, is forecasted for 2030 and 2050. The increase of yield will be possible due to the implementation of new wheat varieties adapted to adverse soil and climatic conditions, as well as the organizational and economic changes in agricultural holdings.

Suggested Citation

  • Syp, Alina, 2015. "Projekcja Zmian Wielkości Plonów Pszenicy W Polsce I Unii Europejskiej W Latach 2030 I 2050 Na Podstawie Modelu Capri," Roczniki (Annals), Polish Association of Agricultural Economists and Agribusiness - Stowarzyszenie Ekonomistow Rolnictwa e Agrobiznesu (SERiA), vol. 2015(2), April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:paaero:233132
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.233132
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Matyka, Mariusz, 2014. "Plonowanie Wybranych Gatunków Roślin w Polsce, Niemczech i 27 Krajach unii Europejskiej w Latach 1961-2012," Roczniki (Annals), Polish Association of Agricultural Economists and Agribusiness - Stowarzyszenie Ekonomistow Rolnictwa e Agrobiznesu (SERiA), vol. 2014(3).
    2. Heinz-Peter Witzke & Pavel Ciaian & Jacques Delince, 2014. "CAPRI long-term climate change scenario analysis: The AgMIP approach," JRC Research Reports JRC85872, Joint Research Centre.
    3. Shrestha, Shailesh & Ciaian, Pavel & Himics, Mihay & Van Doorslaer, Benjamin, 2013. "Impacts of Climate Change on EU Agriculture," Review of Agricultural and Applied Economics (RAAE), Faculty of Economics and Management, Slovak Agricultural University in Nitra, vol. 16(2), pages 1-16, September.
    4. Martin Lampe & Dirk Willenbockel & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Yongxia Cai & Katherine Calvin & Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe & Page Kyle & Hermann Lotze-Campe, 2014. "Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 3-20, January.
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