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Land use change impacts of biofuels: Near-VAR evidence from the US

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  • Piroli, Giuseppe
  • Ciaian, Pavel
  • Kancs, d'Artis

Abstract

The present paper studies the land use change impacts of fuels and biofuels. We test the theoretical hypothesis, which says that changes in fuel prices cause changes in land use both directly and indirectly and that, because of price inter-dependencies, biofuels reinforce the land use change impacts. We apply time-series analytical mechanisms to five major traded agricultural commodities, the cultivated area of agricultural land and crude oil price. Our data consists of yearly observations extending from 1950 to 2007 for the US. The empirical findings confirm that markets for crude oil and cultivated agricultural land are interdependent: an increase in oil price by 1dollar/barrel increases land use between 54,000 and 68,000ha. We also find that the increase of bioenergy sector accelerates land use change in the US, i.e. food commodities are being substituted for bioenergy crops.

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  • Piroli, Giuseppe & Ciaian, Pavel & Kancs, d'Artis, 2012. "Land use change impacts of biofuels: Near-VAR evidence from the US," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 98-109.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:84:y:2012:i:c:p:98-109
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.09.007
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    5. Miroslava Rajcaniova & d'Artis Kancs & Pavel Ciaian, 2014. "Bioenergy and global land-use change," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(26), pages 3163-3179, September.
    6. Piroli, Giuseppe & Rajcaniova, Miroslava & Ciaian, Pavel & Kancs, d׳Artis, 2015. "From a rise in B to a fall in C? SVAR analysis of environmental impact of biofuels," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 921-930.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Near-VAR; Energy; Bioenergy; Prices; Land use; Biofuel policies; Climate change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources

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