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Outlooks, explorations and normative scenarios: Approaches to global energy futures compared

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  • Skea, Jim
  • van Diemen, Renée
  • Portugal-Pereira, Joana
  • Khourdajie, Alaa Al

Abstract

This paper compares recent global energy scenarios developed by governments, international bodies, businesses and the scientific community. We divide the scenarios into three broad classes: outlooks which extrapolate current trends and anticipate policy developments; exploratory scenarios which may consider disruptions; and normative scenarios which derive energy system pathways consistent with a long-term goal. Many organisations are starting to blend outlooks, exploratory and normative approaches. The paper covers trends in primary energy demand to 2040, snapshots of the energy mix in 2040, drivers of demand, and the evolution of scenarios projections developed in recent years. We find sharp divergences between outlooks and normative scenarios compatible with the Paris Agreement on climate change. All published outlooks imply that the world is not on an energy pathway compatible with the Paris Agreement. We conclude with an assessment of emerging themes including: scenario benchmarking and group think; adaptation of scenarios to real world developments; and the plausibility of different types of scenarios. We propose that more dialogue between scenario developers from the scientific community and those working in governments and commercial organisations could be beneficial. Research focusing on the organisational processes through which scenarios are developed could usefully extend this work.

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  • Skea, Jim & van Diemen, Renée & Portugal-Pereira, Joana & Khourdajie, Alaa Al, 2021. "Outlooks, explorations and normative scenarios: Approaches to global energy futures compared," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:168:y:2021:i:c:s0040162521001682
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120736
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    2. Xie, Haonan & Jiang, Meihui & Zhang, Dongdong & Goh, Hui Hwang & Ahmad, Tanveer & Liu, Hui & Liu, Tianhao & Wang, Shuyao & Wu, Thomas, 2023. "IntelliSense technology in the new power systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    3. Vivek Srikrishnan & Yawen Guan & Richard S. J. Tol & Klaus Keller, 2022. "Probabilistic projections of baseline twenty-first century CO2 emissions using a simple calibrated integrated assessment model," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-20, February.
    4. Kishita, Yusuke & Höjer, Mattias & Quist, Jaco, 2024. "Consolidating backcasting: A design framework towards a users’ guide," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    5. Marcus C. Sarofim & Christopher J. Smith & Parker Malek & Erin E. McDuffie & Corinne A. Hartin & Claire R. Lay & Sarah McGrath, 2024. "High radiative forcing climate scenario relevance analyzed with a ten-million-member ensemble," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Rodica Loisel & Lionel Lemiale & Silvana Mima & Adrien Bidaud, 2022. "Strategies for short-term intermittency in long-term prospective scenarios in the French power system," Post-Print hal-04568072, HAL.
    7. Robert J. Brecha & Gaurav Ganti & Robin D. Lamboll & Zebedee Nicholls & Bill Hare & Jared Lewis & Malte Meinshausen & Michiel Schaeffer & Christopher J. Smith & Matthew J. Gidden, 2022. "Institutional decarbonization scenarios evaluated against the Paris Agreement 1.5 °C goal," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.

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