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Direct estimation of policy impacts

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  • Hidehiko Ichimura

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Arizona, University of Tokyo)

  • Christopher Taber

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

Abstract

This paper specifies a general set of conditions under which the impacts of a policy can be identified using data generated under a different policy regime. We show that some of the policy impacts can be identified under relatively weak conditions on the data and structure of a model. Based on the identification result we develop estimators of policy impacts. We discuss a nonparametric method to implement the estimation but also discuss semparametric methods in order to reduce the conditioning dimension. We then provide an empirical example of the impact of tuition subisdies using the ideas. While the framework used in this paper is fairly narrow, we believe this approach can be applied to a broad set of problems.

Suggested Citation

  • Hidehiko Ichimura & Christopher Taber, 2000. "Direct estimation of policy impacts," IFS Working Papers W00/05, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:00/05
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Pedro Carneiro & Michael Lokshin & Nithin Umapathi, 2017. "Average and Marginal Returns to Upper Secondary Schooling in Indonesia," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 16-36, January.
    2. Abbring, Jaap H., 2003. "Dynamic Econometric Program Evaluation," IZA Discussion Papers 804, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Hidehiko Ichimura & Christopher Taber, 2002. "Semiparametric Reduced-Form Estimation of Tuition Subsidies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 286-292, May.
    4. Birol, Ekin & Asare-Marfo, Dorene & Ayele, Gezahegn & Mensa-Bonsu, Akwasi & Ndirangu, Lydia & Okpukpara, Benjamin & Roy, Devesh & Yakhshilikov, Yorbol, 2010. "Investigating the role of poultry in livelihoods and the impact of avian flu on livelihoods outcomes in Africa: Evidence from Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, and Nigeria," IFPRI discussion papers 1011, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Birol, Ekin & Asare-Marfo, Dorene & Ayele, Gezahegn & Mensah-Bonsu, Akwasi & Ndirangu, Lydia & Okpukpara, Benjamin & Roy, Devesh & Yakhshilikov, Yorbol, 2013. "The impact of avian flu on livelihood outcomes in Africa: evidence from Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 8(4), pages 1-14, October.
    6. Schorfheide, Frank & Wolpin, Kenneth I., 2016. "To hold out or not to hold out," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 332-345.
    7. Myrto Kalouptsidi & Paul T. Scott & Eduardo Souza‐Rodrigues, 2021. "Identification of counterfactuals in dynamic discrete choice models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(2), pages 351-403, May.
    8. Zhang, Zheyuan & Xu, Hui & Liu, Ruilin & Zhao, Zhong, 2024. "Free Education and the Intergenerational Transmission of Cognitive Skills in Rural China," IZA Discussion Papers 17314, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Christopher Ferrall, 2002. "Estimation And Inference In Social Experiments," Working Paper 1008, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    10. Carneiro, Pedro & Lee, Sokbae, 2009. "Estimating distributions of potential outcomes using local instrumental variables with an application to changes in college enrollment and wage inequality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(2), pages 191-208, April.
    11. Ranjeeta Thomas, 2012. "Conditional Cash Transfers To Improve Education And Health: An Ex Ante Evaluation Of Red De Protección Social, Nicaragua," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(10), pages 1136-1154, October.
    12. Petra E. Todd & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2008. "Ex Ante Evaluation of Social Programs," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 91-92, pages 263-291.
    13. Feng, Junlong, 2024. "Matching points: Supplementing instruments with covariates in triangular models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(1).
    14. Nicholas-James Clavet & Jean-Yves Duclos & Guy Lacroix, 2013. "Fighting Poverty: Assessing the Effect of Guaranteed Minimum Income Proposals in Quebec," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 39(4), pages 491-516, December.
    15. Thomas, R, 2011. "Using a Semiparametric Estimator to Forecast Education Outcomes in Nicaragua's Red de Proteccion Social," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 11/02, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    16. Sasaki, Yuya & Ura, Takuya, 2023. "Estimation and inference for policy relevant treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 394-450.
    17. Otto Toivanen & Lotta Väänänen, 2016. "Education and Invention," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(2), pages 382-396, May.
    18. Birol, Ekin & Ndirangu, Lydia & Roy, Devesh & Yakhshilikov, Yorbol, 2011. "Assessing the livelihood impacts of a livestock disease outbreak: An alternative approach," IFPRI discussion papers 1081, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    19. Zantomio, Francesca, 2008. "The route to take-up: raising incentives or lowering barriers?," ISER Working Paper Series 2008-35, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    20. Edward Vytlacil & James J. Heckman, 2001. "Policy-Relevant Treatment Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 107-111, May.
    21. Yuya Sasaki & Takuya Ura, 2018. "Estimation and Inference for Policy Relevant Treatment Effects," Papers 1805.11503, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2020.
    22. Thomas M. Russell, 2020. "Policy Transforms and Learning Optimal Policies," Papers 2012.11046, arXiv.org.
    23. Pablo Vidueira & José M. Díaz-Puente & María Rivera, 2014. "Socioeconomic Impact Assessment in Ex Ante Evaluations," Evaluation Review, , vol. 38(4), pages 309-335, August.
    24. Francesca Zantomio & Stephen Pudney & Ruth Hancock, 2010. "Estimating the Impact of a Policy Reform on Benefit Take‐up: The 2001 extension to the Minimum Income Guarantee for UK Pensioners," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 77(306), pages 234-254, April.

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