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The Effect of COVID Certificates on Vaccine Uptake, Health Outcomes, and the Economy

Author

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  • Miquel Oliu-Barton

    (CEREMADE - CEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Bary S R Pradelski

    (CP - CNRS-périodiques - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Nicolas Woloszko

    (OCDE - Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)

  • Lionel Guetta-Jeanrenaud

    (Auteur indépendant)

  • Philippe Aghion

    (INSEAD - Institut Européen d'administration des Affaires, Collège de France - Chaire Economie des institutions, de l'innovation et de la croissance - CdF (institution) - Collège de France, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Patrick Artus

    (Natixis, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Arnaud Fontanet

    (IP - Institut Pasteur [Paris], CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM], PACRI - Pasteur-Cnam Risques infectieux et émergents - IP - Institut Pasteur [Paris] - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - UPCité - Université Paris Cité)

  • Philippe Martin

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research)

  • Guntram B Wolff

    (ULB - Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management [Brussels] - ULB - Université libre de Bruxelles)

Abstract

In the COVID-19 pandemic many countries required COVID certificates, proving vaccination, recovery, or a recent negative test, to access public and private venues. We estimate their effect on vaccine uptake for France, Germany, and Italy using counterfactuals constructed via innovation diffusion theory. The announcement of COVID certificates during summer 2021 were associatedalthough causality cannot be directly inferredwith increased vaccine uptake in France of 13.0 (95% CI 9.7-14.9) percentage points (p.p.) of the total population until the end of the year, in Germany 6.2 (2.6-6.9) p.p., and in Italy 9.7 (5.4-12.3) p.p. Based on these estimates, an additional 3979 (3453-4298) deaths in France, 1133 (−312-1358) in Germany, and 1331 (502-1794) in Italy were averted; and gross domestic product (GDP) losses of €6.0 (5.9-6.1) billion in France, €1.4 (1.3-1.5) billion in Germany, and €2.1 (2.0-2.2) billion in Italy were prevented. Notably, in France, the application of COVID certificates averted high intensive care unit occupancy levels where prior lockdowns were instated.

Suggested Citation

  • Miquel Oliu-Barton & Bary S R Pradelski & Nicolas Woloszko & Lionel Guetta-Jeanrenaud & Philippe Aghion & Patrick Artus & Arnaud Fontanet & Philippe Martin & Guntram B Wolff, 2022. "The Effect of COVID Certificates on Vaccine Uptake, Health Outcomes, and the Economy," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03813557, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03813557
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-31394-1
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03813557
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    1. Lu, Steven Qiang & Vassallo, Jarrod P. & Choi, Ada & Li, Jia, 2024. "The role of political ideology on variety-seeking behavior during crisis-induced threats: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 166-185.
    2. Raffaella Santolini, 2022. "The Covid-19 Green Certificate'S Effect On Vaccine Uptake In Italian Regions," Working Papers 468, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    3. Stefania Profeti & Federico Toth, 2023. "Climbing the 'ladder of intrusiveness': the Italian government's strategy to push the Covid-19 vaccination coverage further," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 56(4), pages 709-731, December.
    4. Joshua S. Gans, 2023. "Vaccine Hesitancy, Passports, And The Demand For Vaccination," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(2), pages 641-652, May.
    5. Christophe Lévêque & Haris Megzari, 2023. "Intensification or diversification: responses by anti health-pass entrepreneurs to French government announcements," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 553-583, December.
    6. Charpe, Matthieu, 2022. "The Economic Impact of Covid-19 and Associated Lockdown Measures in China," MPRA Paper 114861, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Dewatripont, Mathias, 2022. "Which policies for vaccine innovation and delivery in Europe?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    8. J. Veldwijk & J. Exel & E. W. Bekker-Grob & N. Mouter, 2023. "Public Preferences for Introducing a COVID-19 Certificate: A Discrete Choice Experiment in the Netherlands," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 603-614, July.
    9. François, Abel & Gergaud, Olivier & Noury, Abdul, 2023. "Can health passport overcome political hurdles to COVID-19 vaccination?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    10. Schaff, Felix S.F., 2023. "Warfare and Economic Inequality: Evidence from Preindustrial Germany (c. 1400-1800)," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    11. Santolini, Raffaella, 2023. "The COVID-19 green certificate’s effect on vaccine uptake in French and Italian regions," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(5), pages 1036-1057.

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