IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgfe/2023-66.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Flood Risk Mapping and the Distributional Impacts of Climate Information

Author

Abstract

This paper examines the provision of official flood risk information in the United States and its distributional impacts on residential flood insurance take-up. Assembling new data on all flood maps produced after Hurricane Katrina, I first document that updated maps decreased the number of properties zoned in high-risk floodplains and incorrectly omitted five million properties that should have been rezoned inside these areas. Removals and omissions disproportionately occurred in neighborhoods with more Black and Hispanic residents. Leveraging the staggered timing of map updates, I estimate they decreased flood insurance take-up and exacerbated racial disparities in insurance coverage. These effects are driven by beliefs about risks and regulatory constraints. Correcting flood maps could increase welfare by $20 billion annually, but past updates decreased welfare due to distorted risk and price signals.

Suggested Citation

  • Joakim A. Weill, 2023. "Flood Risk Mapping and the Distributional Impacts of Climate Information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-066, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2023-66
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2023.066
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2023066pap.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.17016/FEDS.2023.066?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lucas W. Davis & Gilbert E. Metcalf, 2016. "Does Better Information Lead to Better Choices? Evidence from Energy-Efficiency Labels," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(3), pages 589-625.
    2. Clément de Chaisemartin & Xavier D'Haultfœuille, 2020. "Two-Way Fixed Effects Estimators with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2964-2996, September.
    3. Eli Ben-Michael & Avi Feller & Jesse Rothstein, 2021. "The Augmented Synthetic Control Method," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(536), pages 1789-1803, October.
    4. Peter Christensen & Christopher Timmins, 2022. "Sorting or Steering: The Effects of Housing Discrimination on Neighborhood Choice," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(8), pages 2110-2163.
    5. David M. Cutler & Robert S. Huckman & Mary Beth Landrum, 2004. "The Role of Information in Medical Markets: An Analysis of Publicly Reported Outcomes in Cardiac Surgery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 342-346, May.
    6. Oliver E. J. Wing & William Lehman & Paul D. Bates & Christopher C. Sampson & Niall Quinn & Andrew M. Smith & Jeffrey C. Neal & Jeremy R. Porter & Carolyn Kousky, 2022. "Inequitable patterns of US flood risk in the Anthropocene," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(2), pages 156-162, February.
    7. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    8. Hausman, Catherine & Stolper, Samuel, 2021. "Inequality, information failures, and air pollution," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    9. Mark R. Rosenzweig & Christopher Udry, 2014. "Rainfall Forecasts, Weather, and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 278-283, May.
    10. Delavane Diaz & Frances Moore, 2017. "Quantifying the economic risks of climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(11), pages 774-782, November.
    11. Gamper-Rabindran, Shanti & Timmins, Christopher, 2013. "Does cleanup of hazardous waste sites raise housing values? Evidence of spatially localized benefits," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 345-360.
    12. Liran Einav & Amy Finkelstein & Mark R. Cullen, 2010. "Estimating Welfare in Insurance Markets Using Variation in Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(3), pages 877-921.
    13. Xu, Yiqing, 2017. "Generalized Synthetic Control Method: Causal Inference with Interactive Fixed Effects Models," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 57-76, January.
    14. Joakim A. Weill & Matthieu Stigler & Olivier Deschenes & Michael R. Springborn, 2021. "Researchers' Degrees-of-Flexibility and the Credibility of Difference-in-Differences Estimates: Evidence From the Pandemic Policy Evaluations," NBER Working Papers 29550, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Katrina Jessoe & David Rapson, 2014. "Knowledge Is (Less) Power: Experimental Evidence from Residential Energy Use," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(4), pages 1417-1438, April.
    16. Tatyana Deryugina, 2017. "The Fiscal Cost of Hurricanes: Disaster Aid versus Social Insurance," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 168-198, August.
    17. Jaren C. Pope, 2008. "Do Seller Disclosures Affect Property Values? Buyer Information and the Hedonic Model," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 84(4), pages 551-572.
    18. W J Wouter Botzen & Olivier Deschenes & Mark Sanders, 2019. "The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters: A Review of Models and Empirical Studies," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 13(2), pages 167-188.
    19. Carolyn Kousky, 2019. "The Role of Natural Disaster Insurance in Recovery and Risk Reduction," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 399-418, October.
    20. Hu, Zhongchen, 2022. "Social interactions and households’ flood insurance decisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 414-432.
    21. Reza Marsooli & Ning Lin & Kerry Emanuel & Kairui Feng, 2019. "Climate change exacerbates hurricane flood hazards along US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in spatially varying patterns," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, December.
    22. Raj Chetty & Adam Looney & Kory Kroft, 2009. "Salience and Taxation: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1145-1177, September.
    23. Emir Kamenica, 2017. "Information Economics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(6), pages 1885-1890.
    24. Cuong Nhu Nguyen & Ilan Noy, 2020. "Measuring the impact of insurance on urban earthquake recovery using nightlights [Simple diagnostic tests for spatial dependence]," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 857-877.
    25. Michael W. Robbins & Jessica Saunders & Beau Kilmer, 2017. "A Framework for Synthetic Control Methods With High-Dimensional, Micro-Level Data: Evaluating a Neighborhood-Specific Crime Intervention," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(517), pages 109-126, January.
    26. Sarah Pralle, 2019. "Drawing lines: FEMA and the politics of mapping flood zones," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(2), pages 227-237, January.
    27. Kristian S. Blickle & João A. C. Santos, 2022. "Unintended Consequences of "Mandatory" Flood Insurance," Staff Reports 1012, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    28. Laura A Bakkensen & Lint Barrage, 2022. "Going Underwater? Flood Risk Belief Heterogeneity and Coastal Home Price Dynamics," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(8), pages 3666-3709.
    29. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
    30. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    31. Bradt, Jacob T. & Kousky, Carolyn & Wing, Oliver E.J., 2021. "Voluntary purchases and adverse selection in the market for flood insurance," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    32. Yau-Huo (Jimmy) Shr & Katherine Y. Zipp, 2019. "The Aftermath of Flood Zone Remapping: The Asymmetric Impact of Flood Maps on Housing Prices," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 95(2), pages 174-192.
    33. Brooks Depro & Christopher Timmins & Maggie O'Neil, 2015. "White Flight and Coming to the Nuisance: Can Residential Mobility Explain Environmental Injustice?," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(3), pages 439-468.
    34. Atreya, Ajita & Ferreira, Susana & Michel-Kerjan, Erwann, 2015. "What drives households to buy flood insurance? New evidence from Georgia," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 153-161.
    35. James Chivers & Nicholas E. Flores, 2002. "Market Failure in Information: The National Flood Insurance Program," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 78(4), pages 515-521.
    36. James M. Sallee, 2019. "Pigou Creates Losers: On the Implausibility of Achieving Pareto Improvements from Efficiency-Enhancing Policies," NBER Working Papers 25831, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Alberto Abadie & Alexis Diamond & Jens Hainmueller, 2015. "Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(2), pages 495-510, February.
    38. Goodman-Bacon, Andrew, 2021. "Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 254-277.
    39. Alan Barreca & Karen Clay & Olivier Deschenes & Michael Greenstone & Joseph S. Shapiro, 2016. "Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the US Temperature-Mortality Relationship over the Twentieth Century," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 105-159.
    40. Sun, Liyang & Abraham, Sarah, 2021. "Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 175-199.
    41. Erwann Michel‐Kerjan & Sabine Lemoyne de Forges & Howard Kunreuther, 2012. "Policy Tenure Under the U.S. National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(4), pages 644-658, April.
    42. Francis Annan & Wolfram Schlenker, 2015. "Federal Crop Insurance and the Disincentive to Adapt to Extreme Heat," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 262-266, May.
    43. Spencer Banzhaf & Lala Ma & Christopher Timmins, 2019. "Environmental Justice: The Economics of Race, Place, and Pollution," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 185-208, Winter.
    44. Stephie Fried, 2022. "Seawalls and Stilts: A Quantitative Macro Study of Climate Adaptation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(6), pages 3303-3344.
    45. Beltrán, Allan & Maddison, David & Elliott, Robert J R, 2018. "Is Flood Risk Capitalised Into Property Values?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 668-685.
    46. Justin Gallagher, 2014. "Learning about an Infrequent Event: Evidence from Flood Insurance Take-Up in the United States," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(3), pages 206-233, July.
    47. Matthew Gibson & Jamie T. Mullins, 2020. "Climate Risk and Beliefs in New York Floodplains," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(6), pages 1069-1111.
    48. Alberto Abadie, 2021. "Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 391-425, June.
    49. Matthew E. Kahn, 2005. "The Death Toll from Natural Disasters: The Role of Income, Geography, and Institutions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 271-284, May.
    50. Bakkensen, Laura A. & Ma, Lala, 2020. "Sorting over flood risk and implications for policy reform," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    51. Bin, Okmyung & Landry, Craig E., 2013. "Changes in implicit flood risk premiums: Empirical evidence from the housing market," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 361-376.
    52. Alberto Abadie & Jérémy L’Hour, 2021. "A Penalized Synthetic Control Estimator for Disaggregated Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(536), pages 1817-1834, October.
    53. Jesse D. Gourevitch & Carolyn Kousky & Yanjun (Penny) Liao & Christoph Nolte & Adam B. Pollack & Jeremy R. Porter & Joakim A. Weill, 2023. "Unpriced climate risk and the potential consequences of overvaluation in US housing markets," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(3), pages 250-257, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joakim Weill, 2023. "Flood Risk Mapping and the Distributional Impacts of Climate Information," Working Papers 2023.10, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    2. Justin Contat & Carrie Hopkins & Luis Mejia & Matthew Suandi, 2024. "When climate meets real estate: A survey of the literature," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 52(3), pages 618-659, May.
    3. Susana Ferreira, 2024. "Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change: Economic Impacts and Adaptation Policies," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 16(1), pages 207-231, October.
    4. repec:ags:aaea22:335971 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Bakkensen, Laura A. & Ma, Lala & Muehlenbachs, Lucija & Benitez, Lina, 2024. "Cumulative impacts in environmental justice: Insights from economics and policy," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    6. Youngho Kim, 2024. "Payments for Ecosystem Services Programs and Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture," Economics Series Working Papers 1054, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    7. Marcel Henkel, Eunjee Kwon, Pierre Magontier, 2022. "The Unintended Consequences of Post-Disaster Policies for Spatial Sorting," Diskussionsschriften credresearchpaper37, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft - CRED.
    8. Pier Basaglia & Sophie M. Behr & Moritz A. Drupp, 2023. "De-Fueling Externalities: How Tax Salience and Fuel Substitution Mediate Climate and Health Benefits," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2041, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Pier Basaglia & Sophie M. Behr & Moritz A. Drupp, 2023. "De-Fueling Externalities: Causal Effects of Fuel Taxation and Mediating Mechanisms for Reducing Climate and Pollution Costs," CESifo Working Paper Series 10508, CESifo.
    10. Hennighausen, Hannah & Liao, Yanjun & Nolte, Christoph & Pollack, Adam, 2023. "Flood insurance reforms, housing market dynamics, and adaptation to climate risks," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    11. Andrii Melnychuk, 2024. "Synthetic Controls with spillover effects: A comparative study," Papers 2405.01645, arXiv.org.
    12. Eli Ben‐Michael & Avi Feller & Jesse Rothstein, 2022. "Synthetic controls with staggered adoption," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 84(2), pages 351-381, April.
    13. Dmitry Arkhangelsky & Guido Imbens, 2023. "Causal Models for Longitudinal and Panel Data: A Survey," Papers 2311.15458, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    14. Georgic, Will & Klaiber, H. Allen, 2022. "Stocks, flows, and flood insurance: A nationwide analysis of the capitalized impact of annual premium discounts on housing values," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    15. Nuno Garoupa & Rok Spruk, 2024. "Populist Constitutional Backsliding and Judicial Independence: Evidence from Turkiye," Papers 2410.02439, arXiv.org.
    16. Maximiliano Marzetti & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Long-Term Economic Effects of Populist Legal Reforms: Evidence from Argentina," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(1), pages 60-95, March.
    17. Di, Wenhua & Pattison, Nathaniel, 2023. "Industry Specialization and Small Business Lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    18. Miquel Oliu-Barton & Bary S. R. Pradelski & Nicolas Woloszko & Lionel Guetta-Jeanrenaud & Philippe Aghion & Patrick Artus & Arnaud Fontanet & Philippe Martin & Guntram B. Wolff, 2022. "The effect of COVID certificates on vaccine uptake, health outcomes, and the economy," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    19. Stefano, Roberta di & Mellace, Giovanni, 2020. "The inclusive synthetic control method," Discussion Papers on Economics 14/2020, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
    20. Tomasz Serwach, 2022. "The European Union and within-country income inequalities. The case of the New Member States," Working Papers hal-03548416, HAL.
    21. Liao, Yanjun (Penny) & Mulder, Philip, 2021. "What's at Stake? Understanding the Role of Home Equity in Flood Insurance Demand," RFF Working Paper Series 21-25, Resources for the Future.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Applied Econometrics; Climate Adaptation; Disaster Insurance; Environmental Inequalities; Flood Risk; Information Provision;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G52 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Insurance
    • R52 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Land Use and Other Regulations
    • H40 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - General
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2023-66. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.