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The effects of COVID-19 vaccines on economic activity

Author

Listed:
  • Pragyan Deb

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Davide Furceri

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Daniel Jimenez

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Siddharth Kothari

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Jonathan D. Ostry

    (International Monetary Fund
    Centre for Economic Policy Research)

  • Nour Tawk

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

This paper empirically examines the economic effects of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts using a cross-country daily database of vaccinations and high-frequency indicators of economic activity—nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions, carbon monoxide (CO) emissions, and Google mobility indices—for a sample of 46 countries over the period December 16, 2020 to June 20, 2021. Using surprises in vaccines administered, we find that an unexpected increase in vaccination per capita is associated with a significant increase in economic activity. We also find evidence for nonlinear effects of vaccines, with the marginal economic benefits being larger when vaccination rates are higher. Country-specific conditions play an important role, with lower economic gains if strict containment measures are in place or if the country is experiencing a severe outbreak. Finally, the results provide evidence of spillovers across borders, highlighting the importance of equitable access to vaccines across nations.

Suggested Citation

  • Pragyan Deb & Davide Furceri & Daniel Jimenez & Siddharth Kothari & Jonathan D. Ostry & Nour Tawk, 2022. "The effects of COVID-19 vaccines on economic activity," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-25, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sjecst:v:158:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1186_s41937-021-00082-0
    DOI: 10.1186/s41937-021-00082-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Weber, Michael, 2020. "The Cost of the COVID-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4jn1x65h, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    2. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2013. "Output Spillovers from Fiscal Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 141-146, May.
    3. Carvalho, V & Garcia, Juan R. & Hansen, S. & Ortiz, A. & Rodrigo, T. & More, J. V. R., 2020. "Tracking the COVID-19 Crisis with High-Resolution Transaction Data," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2030, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    5. Ruchir Agarwal & Ms. Gita Gopinath, 2021. "A Proposal to End the COVID-19 Pandemic," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2021/004, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2018. "Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 850-901.
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    Cited by:

    1. Erkmen G. Aslim & Wei Fu & Chia-Lun Liu & Erdal Tekin, 2022. "Vaccination Policy, Delayed Care, and Health Expenditures," NBER Working Papers 30139, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Charpe, Matthieu, 2022. "The Economic Impact of Covid-19 and Associated Lockdown Measures in China," MPRA Paper 114861, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Miquel Oliu-Barton & Bary S. R. Pradelski & Nicolas Woloszko & Lionel Guetta-Jeanrenaud & Philippe Aghion & Patrick Artus & Arnaud Fontanet & Philippe Martin & Guntram B. Wolff, 2022. "The effect of COVID certificates on vaccine uptake, health outcomes, and the economy," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    4. Horvath, Akos & Kay, Benjamin & Wix, Carlo, 2023. "The COVID-19 shock and consumer credit: Evidence from credit card data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    5. Gagnon, Joseph E. & Kamin, Steven B. & Kearns, John, 2023. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global GDP growth," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Pandemics; Vaccinations; Containment measures;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • O50 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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