Droughts, Migration and Population in Kenya

Since 2000, Kenya has experienced an increase in the frequency of droughts, significantly affecting agriculture and driving labor force migration. This paper investigates strategic migration patterns among farmers and pastoralists in response to repetitive droughts. I use fine-grained data that enables the capture of shortdistance migration and heterogeneity, combining satellite-based data on daily rainfalls (CHIRPS) with exhaustive censuses from 1989,1999, and 2009. I use a two-way fixed-effect model to exploit the spatial variation in drought frequency across 2,518 sub-locations, comparing their demographic growth according to the number of dryrainy seasons over each decade. First, I show that increased drought frequency triggers out-migration, as one additional drought decreases demographic growth by 1.7 p.p, equivalent to a 1% population decline. This result is consistent within the [15; 65] age group, excluding other demographic effects and confirming migration as the driving factor. The main contribution of this paper is the identification of different migration strategies across livelihoods. Rural areas dominated by pastoral activities experience significant out-migration, leading to a rural-rural shift from pastoral to agriculture-oriented regions. Herders' migration displays little heterogeneity, suggesting the migration of entire households and consistent with migration as a last resort. Agricultural rural areas are less vulnerable to drought and display significant heterogeneity. The results show the migration of the most educated individuals in the working age, while uneducated individuals are trapped in affected areas. This paper highlights the importance of using detailed data to understand diverse migration strategies, thereby facilitating the implementation of effective policies.