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The effect of weather-induced internal migration on local labor markets. Evidence from Uganda

Author

Listed:
  • Eric Strobl

    (X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris)

  • Marie-Anne Valfort

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Relying on census data collected in 2002 and historical weather data for Uganda, we estimate the impact of weather-induced internal migration on the probability for non-migrants living in the destination regions to be employed. Consistent with the pre- diction of a simple theoretical model, our results reveal a larger negative impact than the one documented for developed countries. They further show that this negative impact is significantly stronger in Ugandan regions with lower road density and therefore less conducive to capital mobility: a 10 percentage points increase in the net in-migration rate in these areas decreases the probability of being employed of non-migrants by more than 10 percentage points.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Strobl & Marie-Anne Valfort, 2015. "The effect of weather-induced internal migration on local labor markets. Evidence from Uganda," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00977051, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00977051
    DOI: 10.1093/wber/lht029
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    4. Rentschler, Jun E., 2013. "Why resilience matters - the poverty impacts of disasters," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6699, The World Bank.
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    9. Barbora Šedová & Lucia Čizmaziová & Athene Cook, 2021. "A meta-analysis of climate migration literature," CEPA Discussion Papers 29, Center for Economic Policy Analysis.
    10. Selod, Harris & Shilpi, Forhad, 2021. "Rural-urban migration in developing countries: Lessons from the literature," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    11. Sharp, Matthew, 2021. "The labour market impacts of female internal migration: Evidence from the end of Apartheid," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    12. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2017. "Climate Variability and Inter-State Migration in India," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(4), pages 560-594.
    13. Wenjie Zhang & Xianqiang Zou & Chuliang Luo & Lulu Yuan, 2024. "Hukou reform and labor market outcomes of urban natives in China," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 1-41, June.
    14. Jaime Lara & Marla Cruz Yedra & Diana V. Moyeda López & Adriana Prats Molina & José A. Tellez Muñoz, 2020. "Migración rural urbana e informalidad en las zonas metropolitanas de México. Una estimación de corto plazo," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 35(2), pages 297-329.
    15. Els BEKEART & Ilse RUYSSEN & Sara SALOMONE, 2021. "Domestic and International Migration Intentions in Response to Environmental Stress: A Global Cross-country Analysis," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 383-436, September.
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    17. Mueller, Valerie & Sheriff, Glenn & Dou, Xiaoya & Gray, Clark, 2020. "Temporary migration and climate variation in eastern Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    18. Mélanie Gittard, 2024. "Droughts, Migration and Population in Kenya," CIRED Working Papers halshs-04685409, HAL.
    19. Dimitri Defrance & Esther Delesalle & Flore Gubert, 2020. "Is migration drought-induced in Mali? An empirical analysis using panel data on Malian localities over the 1987-2009 period," Working Papers DT/2020/01, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    20. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2016. "Climate Variability and Internal Migration: A Test on Indian Inter-State Migration," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00825807, HAL.
    21. Vicente Ruiz, 2017. "Do climatic events influence internal migration? Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 2017.19, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
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    24. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2013. "Climate Variability and Internal Migration: A Test on Indian Inter-State Migration," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13045r, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Mar 2016.
    25. Boudreau, Laura & Heath, Rachel & McCormick, Tyler H., 2024. "Migrants, experience, and working conditions in Bangladeshi garment factories," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 219(C), pages 196-213.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sub-Saharan Africa; weather shocks; internal migration; labor market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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