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Spurious weather effects

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  • Jo Thori Lind

Abstract

Rainfall is exogenous to human actions and hence popular as an exogenous source of variation. But it is also spatially correlated. This can generate spurious relationships between rainfall and other spatially correlated outcomes. As an illustration, rainfall on almost any day of the year has seemingly high predictive power of electoral turnout in Norwegian municipalities. In Monte Carlo analyses, I find that standard tests reject true null hypotheses in as much as 99% of cases. Standard approaches to estimating consistent standard errors do not solve the problem. Instead, I suggest controlling for spatial and spatiotemporal trends using multidimensional polynomials.

Suggested Citation

  • Jo Thori Lind, 2019. "Spurious weather effects," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 322-354, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:59:y:2019:i:2:p:322-354
    DOI: 10.1111/jors.12417
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    2. Mélanie Gittard, 2024. "Impacts of repetitive droughts and the key role of experience : evidence from Nigeria," CIRED Working Papers halshs-04685420, HAL.
    3. Lind, Jo Thori, 2020. "Rainy day politics. An instrumental variables approach to the effect of parties on political outcomes," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    4. Mélanie Gittard, 2024. "Droughts, Migration and Population in Kenya," CIRED Working Papers halshs-04685409, HAL.
    5. Meier, Armando N. & Schmid, Lukas & Stutzer, Alois, 2019. "Rain, emotions and voting for the status quo," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 434-451.
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    9. Philipp Ehrl & Leonardo Monasterio, 2021. "Spatial skill concentration agglomeration economies," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 140-161, January.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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